000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100344
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC THU MAY 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE AXIS AXIS 9N83W 9N102W 8N117W 4N128W 
4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF 
9N112W.      

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP MID-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS ALONG 135W TO 8N. TROPICAL MOISTURE IS 
SURGING POLEWARD E OF THE TROUGH AXIS. A BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED 
NEAR 12N99W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 18N120W ALLOWING A MOISTURE 
SWATH TO REACH INTO MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. A RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS 
E ALONG 12N INTO WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH THE SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE 
PROVIDING OUTFLOW FOR SPOTTY ITCZ CONVECTION W OF PANAMA. CONVECTION 
FIRING OVER NORTHERN COLOMBIA SHOWS NO SIGNS OF VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE SURFACE RIDGE IS DISPLACED WELL NW OF AREA. AS A RESULT TRADE 
WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED CONSIDERABLY OVER THE ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. 
SEA CONDITIONS ARE ALSO QUIET ACROSS REGION AS WELL...WITH CROSS- 
EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS CONTINUING TO SUBSIDE IN THE DEEP TROPICS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. WINDS WILL 
INCREASE SLIGHTLY ALONG THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRADES PICK UP 
TO AROUND 20 KT E OF 130W SAT EVENING...BUT LITTLE ELSE UNTIL THEN.

$$
MUNDELL