000
AXPZ20 KNHC 092203
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC WED MAY 9 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 9N83W 10N105W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 88W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N107W.      

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP MID-LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION N OF AREA HAS LARGE AMPLITUDE 
TROUGH EXTENDING THROUGH 32N128W TO 8N136W. VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 
120 NM ALONG AND W OF AXIS DUE TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT. TROPICAL 
MOISTURE SURGING POLEWARD E OF AXIS. BROAD ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 
12N99W HAS RIDGE EXTENDING NW TO 18N120W...ALLOWING MOISTURE SWATH 
TO REACH MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  RIDGE ALSO EXTENDS E ALONG 12N 
INTO WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE PROVIDING GOOD 
OUTFLOW FOR ITCZ CONVECTION E OF 96W INTO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA.

SURFACE RIDGE DISPLACED WELL NW OF AREA...BUT ITS INFLUENCE EXTENDS 
TO 15N112W CAPPING LOW CLOUDS BUT NOT MUCH OF A PRESSURE GRADIENT 
EXISTS. AS A RESULT TRADE WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED PAST 24 HOURS. SEA 
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO QUIET ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA AS WELL...WITH 
CROSS-EQUATORIAL SW SWELLS SUBSIDING S OF 5N.

NOT MUCH CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 48-60 HOURS. WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG 
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST AND TRADES PICK UP E OF 130W SAT EVENING 
BUT LITTLE ELSE UNTIL THEN.

$$
MUNDELL