000
AXPZ20 KNHC 091558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE...7N78W  10N105W  7N120W  7N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM S OF AXIS E OF 
96W.                                    

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MID AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WELL N OF AREA 
HAS LARGE AMPLITUDE TROUGH ENTER THROUGH 32N128W TO EQUATOR AT 
136W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 120 NM ALONG AND W OF AXIS DUE 
TO CONFLUENT FLOW ALOFT.  WEAK 50 KT WIND CORE BRINGS TROPICAL 
MOISTURE NE ALONG SE PORTION OF AXIS ACCELERATING TO 100 KT BY 
THE TIME IT REACHES CENTRAL MEXICO.  

ANTICYCLONE CENTER AT 12N92W HAS RIDGE EXTEND NW TO 21N123W 
ALLOWING MOISTURE SWATH TO REACH SRN HALF OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL 
AMERICA.  RIDGE EXTEND E ALONG 12N INTO WRN CARIBBEAN SEA WITH 
SRN PERIPHERY OF RIDGE PROVIDING GOOD OUTFLOW FOR ITCZ 
CONVECTION E OF 96W INTO PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...SURFACE RIDGE PUSHED BACK WELL NW OF AREA 
EXTEND ITS INFLUENCE TO 15N112W MAINTAINING CAP ON LOW CLOUDS 
BUT LOST ITS PUSH FOR TRADES WHICH HAVE SUBSIDED FOR OVER 24 HR. 
ONLY MINOR CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TRAINS AFFECTING A PART OF 
E PAC AND THAT IS EXPECTED TO GO AWAY IN LESS THAN SIX HRS. 

WEAK TROUGH FROM 3N TO 12N ALONG 104W LOST MOST OF ITS 
CONVECTION AS IT DRIFTED AWAY FROM THE DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT AND 
NOW CARRIES ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION VERY CLOSE TO ITS 
AXIS. 
 
$$
WALLY BARNES