000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090858
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED MAY 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...7N78W 10N100W 
6N114W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 80W AND 93W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION REMAINS 
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER WRN NEW MEXICO AND IS PART OF A 
LARGER DEEP LAYERED FULL LATITUDE TROUGH. THE CIRCULATION IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN 
BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 
SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED MARKEDLY OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. 

FURTHER W...A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA NORTH OF A LINE FROM 
25N110W TO 5N140W. THE TROUGH SHARPENS SIGNIFICANTLY W OF 130W
AND IS BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED OVER TIME. MODERATE TO STRONG 
UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE/DRY AIR ALOFT IS NOTED WITHIN THE BROAD 
TROUGH. AT THE LOW LEVELS BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS COVERED THE AREA
N OF THE ITCZ TO 23N W OF 110W.  

A LARGE ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 13N97W AND ASSOCIATED 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW DOMINATED THE PACIFIC S OF 22N E OF 125W.
AXIS OF WEAK SUBTROPICAL JTST ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE IS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE ITCZ NEWD
OVER THE TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND MEXICO. 

FURTHER E...A VERY DEEP TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A WELL DEFINED 
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 30N78W SWD ALONG THE E COAST OF 
FLORIDA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN TO A BASE NEAR 14N80W.
DIFFLUENT FLOW JUST S OF THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS 
ENHANCING CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 80W
AND 93W AND EXTENDING NWD TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 
110W. THE RIDGE IS WEAKENED BY THE PRESENCE OF A TROUGH 
FROM 30N130W TO 26N132W. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS INDICATED ALONG
THE ITCZ FROM 14N100W TO 5N102W. CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
TROUGH HAS DISSIPATED. 

$$
COBB