000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090326
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC WED MAY 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...6N77W 7N105W 
9N125W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 75 NM OF 
THE POINT 7N85W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM 
OF THE POINT 7.9N104.4W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND 
WEAKEN.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO 
THE U.S. MOSTLY OVER TEXAS WITH SOME OVER THE NEW MEXICO ARIZONA 
BORDER NORTH OF THE BORDER. 

A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 
25N105W 8N140W.  THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO IN THE LOW LEVELS NORTH 
OF 21N EAST OF 128W.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK TROUGH 
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST FROM IT TO OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 8N FROM 85W 
TO 90W.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE OBSERVED TO BE MOIST BUT MOSTLY 
CLOUD FREE OR ONLY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 115W. BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ELSEWHERE. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROUGH IN THE ITCZ NEAR 102W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION  
WITHIN 90 NM OF THE POINT 8.3N103.9W.  THIS CONVECTION HAS 
DECREASED IN INTENSITY DURING THE LAST 6 HOURS.     

$$
LL