000
AXPZ20 KNHC 082131
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC TUE MAY 08 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE IS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 7N105W 
9N125W 7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF 
THE POINT 6.4N83.4W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITH ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 6.6N103W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE POINT 8N135.3W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CONTINUES 
OVER THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO. THE SYSTEM WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS THEN BEGIN TO MOVE EAST AND 
WEAKEN.  CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM IS CONFINED TO 
THE U.S. MOSTLY OVER TEXAS WITH SOME OVER THE NEW MEXICO ARIZONA 
BORDER NORTH OF THE BORDER. 

A BROAD TROUGH COVERS THE AREA ELSEWHERE NORTH OF A LINE FROM 
25N105W 9N140W.  THIS AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE 
AND UPPER LEVELS. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALSO IN THE LOW LEVELS NORTH 
OF 21N EAST OF 128W.  ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROUGH AREA BROKEN TO 
OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED.

A LARGE TROUGH IS OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC AND A WEAK TROUGH 
EXTENDS SOUTHWEST TO OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 8N FROM 85W TO 90W.  

THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA IS COVERED BY WEAK ANTICYCLONIC FLOW. 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS ARE OBSERVED TO BE MOIST BUT MOSTLY 
CLOUD FREE OR ONLY THIN BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE IS NORTH OF 12N WEST OF 110W. BROAD TROUGH IS 
ANALYZED ELSEWHERE. ENHANCED CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH A 
TROUGH IN THE ITCZ NEAR 102W WITH SCATTERED MODERATE WITH 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM OF THE POINT 
6.6N103W.       

$$
LL