000
AXPZ20 KNHC 071611
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAY 07 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 7N83W  9N91W  7N105W 
11N121W  7N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS E OF 
86W.  SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WAITING 60 NM OF AXIS 
FROM 99W TO 118W.

...DISCUSSION...
STRONG UPPER TROUGH OVER SW CONUS EXTENDS INTO E PAC FROM 
32N112W 20N134W 8N140W.  VERY DRY AIRMASS W OF TROUGH AXIS DUE 
TO CONFLUENT WINDS AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE.  TROUGH SEEMS TO HAVE 
FLATTENED CREST OF LARGE AND WELL ANCHORED RIDGE WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC VORTICES AT 8N127W AND 11N99W.  WEAK WIND CORE OF 
65 KT MOVING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO BASIN SE OF 
TROUGH AXIS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ.  AREA OF WEAKNESS 
IN RIDGE ACCOUNTS FOR DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND WITH THE HELP OF 
SURFACE TROUGH ALONG 124W HAS DEVELOPED SCATTERED STRONG 
CONVECTION WHICH IS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AND STRENGTH. 

HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB AT 37N138W HAS WEAKENED SIGNIFICANTLY 
RESULTING IN SUBSIDING TRADES W OF 130W.  TRADES TREND WILL 
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH BELOW 20 KT AND SEAS ABATE UNDER 8 FT 
WITHIN 48 HRS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES