000
AXPZ20 KNHC 060339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN MAY 06 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N79W  8N86W  9N98W  7N108W  10N118W  
8N127W  7N135W  5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS FROM 97W TO 122W AND WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS W OF 129W.   

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH FROM 32N110W 26N117W 27N140W MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR 
MASS N OF 23N DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 10N107W COVERS E PAC AREA DOWNSTREAM TO 
92W S OF 23N.  WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 75 KT POURS ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO GULF OF MEXICO.  GFS...NAM AND 
NOGAPS SOLUTIONS HOLD GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IN PLACE KEEPING COLD 
FRONT N OF BASIN EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GAP 
WINDS THROUGH PERIOD.

WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ALONG 87W PROVIDES SOME DIFFLUENCE ALOFT 
TO ENHANCE ITCZ CONVECTION OVER PANAMA.  

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 36N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 12N105W 
WITH STRONG TRADES N OF 10N W OF 126W WHICH WEAKEN BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.  STRONG NW WIND ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
ALSO DIMINISH BY END OF PERIOD...BUT LEAVE NLY SWELLS OF 25N E 
OF 120W.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS ENTER SW CORNER OF E PAC BY 
END OF PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES