000
AXPZ20 KNHC 052209
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAY 05 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 9N83W  9N99W  7N108W  10N117W  7N135W  
5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS FROM 96W TO 
122W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS ELSEWHERE.  

...DISCUSSION...
WEAK TROUGH FROM 32N110W 26N117W 27N140W MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR 
MASS N OF 23N DUE TO MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALOFT.  WELL 
ANCHORED ANTICYCLONE AT 11N112W COVERS E PAC AREA DOWNSTREAM TO 
95W S OF 23N.  WEAK SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM 80 KT POURING 
ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS SRN MEXICO INTO GULF OF MEXICO WHERE 
WEAKENING RIDGE IS LIKELY TO GIVE WAY TO DEVELOPING COLD FRONT 
NOW OVER CENTRAL TEXAS.  CLIMATOLOGY ALONG WITH GFS...NAM AND 
NOGAPS SOLUTIONS HOLD REINFORCED GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE IN PLACE 
KEEPING COLD FRONT N OF BASIN EFFECTIVELY CUTTING OFF GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC GAP WINDS THROUGH PERIOD.  ALTHOUGH I AM INCLINED TO 
DISAGREE WITH MODELS...THEIR UNANIMITY AND CLIMO PREVAIL OVER MY
INCLINATIONS AND WILL ACCEPT THEIR SOLUTIONS. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB AT 36N136W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 10N100W 
WITH STRONG TRADES N OF 10N W OF 125W WHICH WEAKEN BY END OF 
FORECAST PERIOD.  STRONG NW WIND ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA 
ALSO DIMINISH BY END OF PERIOD...BUT LEAVE NLY SWELLS OF 25N E 
OF 120W.  CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELLS ENTER SW CORNER OF E PAC BY 
END OF PERIOD.  

$$
WALLY BARNES