000 AXPZ20 KNHC 050929 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1005 UTC SAT MAY 05 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0845 UTC. ...ITCZ... AXIS ALONG 8N77W 6N81W 9N95W 10N107W 10N119W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 8N80W AND 7N81W. SCATTERED MODERATE NEAR 8N91W AND FROM 7N95W TO 5N100W. ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 9N94W AND 10N103W. CLUSTER OF STRONG CONVECTION CENTERED NEAR 8N113W. SCATTERED MODEATE FROM 7N116W TO 10N121W THEN ISOLATED MODERATE TO 7N127W TO 8N133W. ...DISCUSSION... A STRONG UPPER RIDGE OFF THE NW PAC COAST HAS TAPPED COLD AIR AND SENT IT SWD INTO THE VIGOROUS TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS TONIGHT. THE TROUGH AXIS IS ALONG 110W AND EXTENDS S TO 23N. A MID LEVEL RIDGE IS CENTERED NEAR 33N138W AND STATIONARY. A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 10N AND 20N EXTENDS FROM 95W TO 135W. A SERIES OF WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES CONTINUES TO MOVE FROM THE SRN PORTION OF THE CENTRAL PACIFIC ENE INTO OUR REGION BETWEEN 20N AND 23N ACROSS LOWER BAJA AND N CENTRAL MEXICO. ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A MODERATE STRENGTH PACIFIC RIDGE CENTERED UNDER THE MID LEVEL CENTER RIDGES SE OVER THE REGION TO 13N105W. THE RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR NE TRADES TO 25 KT W OF 125W AND SEAS TO 12 FT. FAIRLY STRONG GRADIENT OFF THE CA COAST IS PRODUCING NW GALES AND SEAS TO 14 FT. THE SEAS ARE PROPOGATING SE ALONG THE BAJA COAST. SSMI AND QUIKSCAT SHOW NW WINDS OF 25 KT ALONG THE BAJA COAST. GAP WINDS ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST HAVE MOSTLY LIGHT WINDS. LATER DAY 1 LITTLE CHANGE TO THE MID LEVEL PATTERN. THE STRONG TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS CONTINUES TO LOWER MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 100W AND 125W AND INTERCEPTS THE WEAK IMPULSES TRAVELING ENE FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC. ON THE SURFACE LATER DAY 1 NE TRADES WILL REMAIN BRISK TO 25 KT W OF 125W. N TO NW WINDS TO 25 KT WILL CONTINUE E OF 125W N OF 27N WITH NW SWELL TO 12 FT. LITTLE CHANGE TO GAP WINDS. FOR DAY 2 MID LEVEL HEIGHTS CONTINUE FALLING SLOWLY BETWEEN 100W AND 125W AS THE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS MOVES SWD OVER THE SRN ROCKIES. THE CLOSED UPPER RIDGE OFF THE NW CORNER OF THE AREA WEAKENS SOME AND DRIFTS EWD TO ALONG 133W. THE FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE BETWEEN 10N AND 20N WEAKENS TO A SMALL CENTER OVER SRN MEXICO DAY 2. THE TRAIN OF WEAK IMPULSES AT MID LEVELS FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC DIMINISH WITH ONLY ONE NOTED DAY 2 NEAR 20N116W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 THE PRES GRADIENT WEAKENS E OF 120W AND NW WINDS DIMINISH TO 10 KTS. THE PACIFIC RIDGE WEAKENS SOME WITH NE TRADES DECREASING TO 20 KT W OF 130W WITH SEAS 8 TO 10 FT. GAP WINDS REMAIN LIGHT. $$ RRG