000
AXPZ20 KNHC 040329
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI MAY 04 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0330 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N78W 9N90W 7N105W 10N118W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 133W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE ELSEWHERE WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 
109W...AND WITHIN 60-90 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. 

...DISCUSSION...
SHEARED MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A BROADER
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH 32N119W TO 20N140W 
WITH AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE EXTREME SW PORTION 
OF THE TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N105W 
AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERED E PAC ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90W AND 
125W AND EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO 25N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL  
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY A 70-80 KT JET ALONG THE PERIPHERY 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA INTO CENTRAL MEXICO. 

RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE SE CONUS EXTENDS SSWD 
ACROSS SW FLORIDA PENINSULA THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN INTO EXTREME 
ERN TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 90W RESULTING IN SOME UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENCE AND PROVIDING MODEST LIFT FOR CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ 
BETWEEN 82W AND 86W TO THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB NEAR 32N145W HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING SEWD TO 13N105W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE TRADES W OF 
125W. LARGE SWELL TRAIN FROM LOW PRES WELL N OF AREA STILL 
ENCROACHING INTO E PAC N OF TRADE REGION WITH SEAS UP TO 12 FT. 
STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF THE TRADE WIND AREA EXPECTED TO 
DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E.

AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
IS BRINGING IN SWELLS S TO 23N. OTHER CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
TRAIN IS NOTED OVER THE PACIFIC S OF 5N BUT IS EXPECTED TO 
ABATE WITHIN 36 HRS.   

$$
COBB