000
AXPZ20 KNHC 032143
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU MAY 03 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2145 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N78W 9N91W 7N105W 10N117W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 118W AND 125W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE AXIS W OF 128W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120-150 NM OF THE AXIS E OF 97W.

...DISCUSSION...
SHEARED MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDED FROM A BROADER
LONGWAVE TROUGH OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH 32N123W TO 21N140W 
WITH AN AREA OF VERY DRY AIR ALOFT OVER THE SW EXTENT OF THE 
TROUGH. UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION NEAR 9N105W AND
ASSOCIATED RIDGE COVERED E PAC ELSEWHERE BETWEEN 90W AND 125W 
AND EXTENDED NORTHWARD TO 25N. MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROPICAL  
MOISTURE IS BEING ADVECTED BY A 70-80 KT JET ALONG THE PERIPHERY 
OF THE ANTICYCLONE AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN TIP OF BAJA 
CALIFORNIA.  

RATHER SHARP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE SE CONUS EXTENDS FROM 
THE S FLORIDA PENINSULA SWD THROUGH THE W CARIBBEAN INTO EXTREME 
ERN E PAC E OF 90W RESULTING IN SOME UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE AND 
ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 95W.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1032 MB NEAR 32N145W HAS AN ASSOCIATED RIDGE 
EXTENDING SEWD TO 13N105W WITH MODERATE TO STRONG NE TRADES W OF 
125W. LARGE SWELL TRAIN FROM LOW PRES WELL N OF AREA STILL 
ENCROACHES INTO E PAC N OF TRADE REGION. STRENGTH AND COVERAGE 
OF THE TRADE WIND AREA EXPECTED TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT 48 
HOURS AS HIGH PRES DRIFTS E.  

AREA OF MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST 
IS BRINGING IN SWELLS S TO 23N. OTHER CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
TRAIN INVADE E PAC S OF 5N BUT ABATES WITHIN 48 HRS.   

$$
COBB