000
AXPZ20 KNHC 030919
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC THU MAY 3 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS ALONG 8N78W 7N88W 5N99W 10N114W 5N133W 4N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION NEAR 4N78W 5N82W 6N84W AND 7N89W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE FROM 7N91W TO 5N95W. ISOLATED MODERATE NEAR 5N99W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 8N107W 8N110W AND 
8N117W. SCATTERED STRONG ALONG A LINE FROM 12N113W TO 9N122W. 
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION NEAR 7N122W 5N131W AND 4N134W.

...DISCUSSION...

MID LEVEL HEIGHTS ARE RISING OVER THE REGION TONIGHT AS A LARGE 
MOUND OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BETWEEN 10N AND 20N. THE 
WESTERLIES PUSH INTO THE REGION N OF 25N WITH MOST OF THE ACTION 
WELL N OF 30N ALONG 120W WHERE A UPPER TROUGH HAS MOVED INLAND. 
ON THE SURFACE TONIGHT A 1027 MB HIGH WAS CENTERED JUST NW OF 
THE AREA NEAR 32N143W AND RIDGES SE TO 20N110W. THE RIDGE IS 
PRODUCING NE TRADES TO 25 KT ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT IMAGERY. NW 
WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST ARE MOSTLY 15 TO 20 KT BUT WINDS TO 
25 KT ARE ALONG 30N ALONG THE COAST ACCORDING TO QUIKSCAT AND 
SSMI AND AGREES WITH THE GFS MODEL 06Z CHART. 

LATER DAY 1 THE MID LEVEL HEIGHT FIELD WILL CONTINUE TO RISE 
SLOWLY AS THE STRONG TROUGH MOVES INLAND OVER THE WRN CONUS AND 
WEAKENS. ONE WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE TO NEAR 130W AND BRUSH BY 
THE REGION. LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PACIFIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRES WITH 
NW WINDS ALONG THE BAJA COAST OF 20 KT. NE TRADES REMAIN ABOUT 
THE SAME. GAP WINDS AROUND CENTRAL AMERICA WILL HAVE MOSTLY 
LIGHT WINDS.

FOR DAY 2 A NEW SURGE OF COLD AIR INVADES THE MID LEVEL TROUGH 
OVER THE WRN CONUS AND LOWERS MID LEVEL HEIGHTS BETWEEN 105W AND 
125W. MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS ALONG 104W JUST N OF 30N. 
OTHERWISE A FLAT MID LEVEL RIDGE LIES BETWEEN 10N AND 20N FROM 
90W TO W OF 130W. ON THE SURFACE DAY 2 NW WINDS 20 TO 25 KT WILL 
CONTINUE ALONG THE BAJA C0AST N OF 27N WITH SWELL TO 10 FT. THE 
PACIFIC RIDGE REMAINS ABOUT THE SAME STRENGTH AND POSITION THUS 
NE TRADES REMAIN THE SAME TO 25 KT BETWEEN 10N AND 22N W OF 
120W.  GAP WINDS REMAIN ABOUT THE SAME..MOSTLY LIGHT.  

$$
RRG