000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021531
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED MAY 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ALONG 8N83W  7N96W  11N115W  5N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 119W.

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 14N11W HAS LARGE RIDGE 
COVERING ENTIRE E PAC W OF 100W.  RIDGE CREST HAS BEEN FLATTENED 
INTO MOSTLY QUASI-ZONAL FLOW BY UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WELL N OF 
FORECAST REGION.  ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE MOVES NE ALONG 
UPSTREAM SIDE OF RIDGE WITH WEAK 50 KT WIND CORE.  WATER SWATH 
CROSSES TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO INTO 
WRN HALF OF GULF OF MEXICO WHERE LITTLE UPLIFT IS FOUND.

CUT OFF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER NERN GULF OF MEXICO HAS UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH ENCROACH INTO E PAC FROM GUATEMALA TO 8N97W WITH 
DRY AIRMASS ALOFT WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS.  UPPER LEVEL ATLC RIDGE 
CONTROLS FLOW E OF 85W.     

AT THE SURFACE...
PACIFIC HIGH PRES 1030 MB AT 32N158W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 12N120W 
WITH STRONG NE TRADES W OF 115W.  RIDGE FORCED WILL INCREASE NW 
WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST NEXT 12-24 HRS AND NW SWELLS 
MOVING SE FROM LOW PRES CENTER WELL N OF FORECAST WATERS.   

$$
WALLY BARNES