000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC TUE MAY 1 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N78W 9N100W 7N124W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 96W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 31N126W WITH UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING TO 24N132W. WEAKENING UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE 
CENTERED NEAR 12N117W. BETWEEN THESE TWO CENTERS THE SUBTROPICAL JET 
GAINS VELOCITY...WITH MAX WINDS ESTIMATED FROM CLOUD MOTION VECTORS 
AT 100 KT...JET CORE NEAR 23N127W. THIS FAVORABLE ADVECTION PATTERN 
IS BRING LARGE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE FROM THE SW PORTION OF AREA INTO  
BAJA CALIFORNIA REGION. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS EAST OF 110W ALONG 9N 
TO CENTRAL AMERICA. DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT NEAR RIDGE AXIS GENERATING 
WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ. WIDE SWATH OF 
MOISTURE EVIDENT S OF 10N ACROSS ENTIRE DISCUSSION AREA. 

WEAK SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDS SE FROM 1022 MB HIGH NEAR 31N135W TO 
20N110W. THE LACK OF A STRONG RIDGE IS KEEPING TRADES IN THE GENTLE 
TO MODERATE BEAUFORT CATEGORY. VERY LITTLE CHANGE TO CURRENT PATTERN 
EXPECTED THROUGH 36 HOURS. A WEAK FRONT ENTERING NW PORTION IN ABOUT 
48 HOURS WILL PUSH SWELLS UP TO 11-12 FT THU NIGHT ALONG WITH A 
SLIGHT INCREASE IN TRADE WINDS W OF 130W. MOST SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN 
THE 48-72 HOUR TIME FRAME WILL BE HIGH PRES RIDGE BUILDING W OF SAN 
DIEGO...WITH A CORRESPONDING INCREASE IN SFC WINDS ALONG THE COAST 
OF SRN CALIF AND BAJA. 25 KT WINDS WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS OVER 30 KT 
ARE POSSIBLE N OF 24N E OF 120W BY FRI NIGHT.

$$
MUNDELL