000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301507
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE ALONG 4N77W  8N84W  9N100W  
6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 45 NM OF AXIS E OF 98W.  
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS FROM 98W TO 
110W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS W 
OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 31N130W HAS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTEND TO 23N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO MODERATE TO 
STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 150 NM OF TROUGH AXIS.  STRONGER JET 
CORE...NOW UP TO 110 KT FROM YESTERDAY 85 KT...ADVECTING LARGE 
AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE IN 450 NM SWATH ALONG SE SKIRTS OF TROUGH.
ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 11N120W HELPS STEER ADVECTED 
WATER OVER RIDGE CREST TOWARDS BAJA CALIFORNIA.  UPPER 
DIFFLUENCE NEAR 22N120W...BETWEEN ANTICYCLONE AND TROUGH 
ENHANCING CONVECTION NEAR POINT. 

RIDGE MAINTAINS ELY MOIST FLOW S OF 12N FEEDING ABUNDANT 
MOISTURE TO ITCZ WHICH HAS BECOME MORE ACTIVE THAN HAS BEEN... 
SIGNS OF THE TIMES.  

WIND FLOW BECOMES QUASI-ZONAL E OF 100W ACROSS GULF OF MEXICO 
AND CARIBBEAN SEA. 

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRES RIDGE 1024 MB AT 31N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 20N110W.
NE TRADES REMAIN TAMED THROUGH FORECAST PERIOD.  NO GAP WINDS OR 
OTHERWISE SIGNIFICANT FEATURE NOTICED OR EXPECTED.    

$$
WALLY BARNES