000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300338
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC MON APR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N78W 10N96W 6N117W 7N132W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 93W AND 108W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 5N TO 10N BETWEEN 127W AND 136W.

...DISCUSSION...
MOST OF DISCUSSION AREA UNDER STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
ANTICYCLONE CENTERED AT 12N122W WITH RIDGE EXTENDING E TO PANAMA. 
MID TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED AT 31N107W. WEAK 
JET MAX 85 KT CRESTING OVER ANTICYCLONE ADVECTING PLENTY OF ITCZ 
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO REGION. DRY MID LEVELS N OF 11N E OF 115W 
UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH CENTRAL AMERICA INTO 
GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA. UPPER RIDGE W OF PANAMA MAINTAINS 
DIFFLUENT FLOW OF MOIST AIR OVER ITCZ ACTING TO ENHANCE CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1026 MB NW OF AREA WILL MOVE E-SE 
AND WEAKEN NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL ACT TO DIMINISH TRADES WITH ONLY 
LINGERING AND ABATING NW SWELL REMAINING IN FAR SW PORTION OF 
FORECAST WATERS.

LITTLE CHANGE EXPECTED NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER 72 HOURS WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT WILL BRING HIGHER SWELLS INTO NW PORTION OF AREA.

$$
MUNDELL