000
AXPZ20 KNHC 292130
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN APR 29 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N84W 10N102W 6N117W 7N130W 5N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
CONVECTION WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 90W AND 102W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
E PAC WATERS UNDER STRONG MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH TWO MAIN 
CENTERS ONE AT 11N123W AND ANOTHER AT 10N83W. WEAK JET MAX 85 KT 
CRESTING OVER FIRST CENTER ADVECTING PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALOFT WHILE 
AS ANTICYCLONIC FLOW BRINGS ITCZ CONVECTIVE DEBRIS INTO JET ENTRANCE 
REGION. MOISTURE STILL REMAINS W OF 115W. VERY DRY MID LEVELS N OF 
11N E OF 115W UNDER MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE THROUGH CENTRAL 
AMERICA AND INTO GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN SEA.

ANTICYCLONE OVER COSTA RICA MAINTAINS STEADY E FLOW OF MOIST AIR 
MASS FROM SOUTH AMERICA INTO ITCZ BUT LACK OF UPLIFT MECHANISMS 
KEEPS CONVECTION ISOLATED TO MODERATE...BUT INCREASING LAST 6 HRS. 

AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRES CENTER 1028 MB WELL NW OF E PAC WILL MOVE 
E-SE AND WEAKEN NEXT 24 HRS. THIS WILL ACT TO DIMINISH TRADES WITH 
ONLY LINGERING AND ABATING NW SWELL REMAINING IN FAR SW PORTION OF 
FORECAST WATERS.  

GAP WINDS...MINOR WIND EVENT AS E TRADES SPILL OVER CENTRAL AMERICA 
ALONG GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WITH 20 KT EXPECTED TO CONTINUE NEXT 
24-36 HRS.

$$
MUNDELL