000
AXPZ20 KNHC 250939
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC WED APR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 9N92W 7N110W 6N125W 4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IS WITHIN 75 NM N OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 81W-84W. SCATTERED MODERATE IS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 
127W-132W. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE IS WITHIN 180 NM EITHER 
SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 106W-116W.

...DISCUSSION...

A RATHER AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER TROUGH/RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN IS 
ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. STARTING FROM W TO 
E...AN UPPER LOW IS PUSHING NE AND WEAKENING CENTERED NEAR 
25N134W WITH TROUGHING DRAPED SWD TO 5N136W. UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
AND SLY FLOW BETWEEN THIS FEATURE AND A SPRAWLING UPPER HIGH 
NEAR 13N108W IS GENERATING AND DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE NEWD 
BETWEEN 110W-133W. IR IMAGERY DOES SHOW SOME SCATTERED POCKETS 
OF -70 C CLOUD TOPS SO SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY EMBEDDED. 
THIS MOISTURE IS BEING SHARPLY SUPPRESSED N OF 20N AS STRONG 
UPPER CONFLUENCE EXISTS BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND A VIGOROUS 
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.  FARTHER E OVER 
THE TROPICAL WATERS...THE UPPER FLOW REMAINS LIGHT BUT THERE IS 
ENOUGH LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO GENERATE 
CLUSTERS OF MODERATE CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ E OF 85W. 

A BROAD 1033 MB SFC RIDGE WITH A MEAN CENTER NEAR 34N143W IS 
PRODUCING 20-25 KT NE TRADES ACROSS A PORTION OF THE TROPICAL 
WATERS...W OF 115W FROM 6N-20N. A 04Z QSCAT PASS SHOWS SLIGHTLY 
STRONGER WINDS JUST W OF THE AREA ON THE SRN PERIPHERY OF THE 
SFC RIDGE...WHERE THE PRES GRAD IS TYPICALLY TIGHTEST. THIS HIGH 
IS FORECAST TO SHIFT E AND SLOWLY WEAKEN. THIS WILL ALLOW THE 
TRADES TO REMAIN SIMILAR OR WEAKEN SLIGHTLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE 
OF DAYS. MEANWHILE...THE TIGHTENED PRES GRAD BETWEEN THIS HIGH 
AND LOW PRES OVER THE SW U.S./MEXICO WILL CAUSE NLY WINDS TO 
INCREASE OVER THE EXTREME NE PORTION OF THE REGION BEGINNING 
SOMETIME LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW. HIGH SEAS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP 
ESPECIALLY IN THIS AREA...12-15 FT...DUE TO THE COMBINATION OF 
THE INCREASED WINDS AND PRONOUNCED NW SWELL.

$$
CANGIALOSI