000
AXPZ20 KNHC 232159
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC MON APR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG  5N77W  8N93W  2N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS FROM 110W TO 132W AND WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 
132W.

...DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
DEEP LAYER CYCLONIC VORTEX OVER SW USA HAS UPPER TROUGH EXTEND 
S TO 32N115W AND 22N120W THEN W TO 18N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS 
SHOW MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 240 NM N OF TROUGH 
AXIS W OF 118W.  

UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER AT 29N133W BRINGS  
MOISTURE INTO E PAC BASIN N OF 25N.  WHILE WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL 
90 KT JET STREAM MOVES MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF WATER ALONG S AND E OF 
TROUGH AXIS AND INTO NRN HALF OF MEXICO W OF 100W.  THIS SOURCE 
OF ENERGY COULD BECOME AVAILABLE IF FRONTOGENESIS DEVELOPS FROM 
LOW PRES CENTER IN CENTRAL TEXAS.  MODELS DEVELOP VERY WEAK COLD 
FRONT DEVELOPING THERE AND MOVING INTO GULF OF MEXICO IN 72 HRS.

AT THE LOWER LEVELS...
HIGH PRES CENTER 1025 MB AT 28N130W HAS SURFACE RIDGE EXTEND TO 
12N102W KEEPING CAP OVER CLOUD DEVELOPMENT OVER MOST OF E PAC N 
OF 15N W OF 110W.  NE TRADES W OF 125W CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT 48 
HRS WHILE NW WINDS ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA COAST DIMINISH BY END 
OF PERIOD.  MOST OF BASIN W OF 115W BEING AFFECTED BY EITHER NW 
SWELLS OR CROSS EQUATORIAL SW SWELL TRAINS. 

$$
WALLY BARNES