000
AXPZ20 KNHC 231529
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 23 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 9N104W 3N130W 5N140W. ISOLATED 
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 4N-13N BETWEEN 88W-104W AND ALONG THE 
COLOMBIAN COAST. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W-124W. NUMEROUS MODERATE/STRONG WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS 
BETWEEN 127W-136W.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
A SERIES OF UPPER TROUGHS AND RIDGES ARE TRAVERSING ACROSS THE W 
COAST OF THE UNITED STATES WITH A FAIRLY VIGOROUS UPPER LOW 
CENTERED NEAR THE NEVADA/UTAH BORDER AND AN UPPER HIGH OVER THE 
NW PART OF THE AREA NEAR 29N136W. AN ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL 
CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS ALSO STRETCHES ACROSS THE AREA FROM CENTRAL 
BAJA SW TO 20N126W 19N140W CONNECTING TO A CLOSED LOW JUST E OF 
THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH IS PUSHING INTO 
THE AREA ROUGHLY ALONG 29N E OF 128W WITH GENERAL RIDGING IN 
CONTROL AND A BROKEN/OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS DECK OVER THE COOL 
WATERS. THE WRN U.S. LOW/SHEAR AXIS IS DRAWING TROPICAL MOISTURE 
NE INTO NRN/CENTRAL MEXICO BUT IT REMAINS ELEVATED AND ONLY 
PRODUCING BROKEN HIGH CLOUDINESS.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
FOR THE REGION W OF 120W...THE MID/UPPER FLOW IS PRIMARILY 
WESTERLY WITH A 90 KT JET CENTERED ALONG 15N AND TRANSPORTING 
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE EWD THEN NEWD TOWARDS MEXICO. THE UPPER 
FLOW E OF 110W IS HIGHLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT THE MOMENT AND 
THE ENVIRONMENT APPEARS TO BE DOMINATED BY A MID-LEVEL HIGH OVER 
THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHICH IS PRODUCING MID-LEVEL EASTERLIES 
BETWEEN COLOMBIA AND 105W AND SOUTHERLIES OFF THE COAST OF WRN 
MEXICO. THE SURFACE FLOW IS ALSO PARTICULARLY LIGHT AND THUS IS 
LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ. A 
FEW ISOLATED CLUSTERS OF CONVECTION HAVE DEVELOPED IN THE 
VICINITY OF THE AXIS E OF 105W BUT NOTHING IS VERY FOCUSED. A 
MILD GAP EVENT OVER THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO HAS BEGUN...AS 
INDICATED BY AN ARC CLOUD THAT PROPAGATED ABOUT 180 NM SW OF THE 
NICARAGUA COAST...BUT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH 20 KT 
WITH SEAS REMAINING LESS THAN 8 FT DUE TO LIMITED FETCH.

$$
BERG