000
AXPZ20 KNHC 220339
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 22 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0345 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS AXIS 8N78W 5N86W 9N95W 6N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE 
ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS W OF 109W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID/UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AT 23N124W HAS UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH EXTEND W TO 22N140W.  MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE 
MAINTAINS VERY DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 300 NM E OF TROUGH AXIS. 
WEAK WLY SUBTROPICAL JET CORE 95 KT S OF AXIS ADVECTING 
SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND BACKS NE AROUND 
CYCLONIC VORTEX BRINGING MOISTURE CLOSER TO BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
NW MEXICO.  ELSEWHERE W OF 120W...BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGE 
MAINTAINS FAIR DIFFLUENT PATTERN ABOVE ITCZ PATRONIZING 
CONVECTION W OF 105W BUT BLOWING DEBRIS MOISTURE S AWAY FROM 
ABOVE MENTIONED MOISTURE PATH LITERALLY CUTTING OFF WATER SOURCE
...EXCEPT AS MENTIONED BELOW.

OVER ERN SECTION...UPPER RIDGE OVER COLOMBIA/SWRN CARIBBEAN 
HELPS BRING LIMITED AMOUNT OF MOISTURE INTO ITCZ MOSTLY E OF 
85W.  SOURCE SEEMS SPORADIC AND NOT EXPECTED TO BE LONG LASTING 
AS CONVECTION W OF 105W.  WEAK DEFORMATION ZONE FROM 92W-98W 
DEVOID OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION.

AT THE SFC...STATIONARY 1026 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 30N136W HAS 
RIDGE EXTENDING SE TO 21N115W COVERING FORECAST WATERS N OF 15N  
W OF 115W.  PRES GRADIENT PRODUCING NE TRADES FROM 6N-23N W OF 
125W.  NW WINDS CONFINED TO NE PART FROM 23N-28N E OF 118W 
EXPECTED TO DIMINISH NEXT 36 HRS AS HIGH PRES SLOWLY MOVES E AND 
WEAKENS.

$$
WALLY BARNES