000
AXPZ20 KNHC 191523
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC THU APR 19 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 7N91W 9N104W 4N123W 3N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 
88W-96W. 

...DISCUSSION...

BROAD RATHER FLAT UPPER TROUGHING ON THE S SIDE OF A VERTICALLY 
STACKED LOW PRES SYSTEM N OF THE REGION COVERS THE DISCUSSION 
AREA N OF 18N WITH THE UPPER AXIS EXTENDING FROM 32N123W 
18N119W. A EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE IS DIGGING SWD ALONG 26N DEEPENING 
THE TROUGH. A HIGHLY AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS 
LOCATED W OF THE AREA BUT IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT E WHICH SHOULD 
SHARPEN THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. FOR THE MOST 
PART...DRY SUBSIDENT FLOW DOMINATES N OF 22N. S-SWLY UPPER FLOW 
AND DIFFLUENCE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH AXIS IS GENERATING AND 
STEERING A BROKEN TO OVERCAST MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK WITH 
EMBEDDED ISOLATED SHOWERS N OF THE ITCZ ACROSS MEXICO BETWEEN 
100W-115W. MORE SIGNIFICANT WEATHER LIES FURTHER E ALONG THE 
ITCZ ENHANCED BY PRONOUNCED UPPER DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN BROAD 
RIDGING OVER S AMERICA AND AN UPPER LOW LOCATED NEAR 4N102W. 

AT THE SFC...A 1031 MB HIGH IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA NEAR 
34N151W. THIS IS PRODUCING TRADES NEAR 20 KT BETWEEN 6N-26N W OF 
126W. SLIGHTLY STRONGER WINDS ARE OBSERVED FURTHER E WHERE A 
TIGHTENED PRES GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS HIGH AND LOW PRES OVER 
MEXICO IS GENERATING AN AREA OF 20-25 KT N TO NE WINDS N OF 24N 
E OF 126W. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DECREASE OVER THE NEXT 
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THE SFC HIGH WEAKENS AND SLIDES TO THE SE.

$$
CANGIALOSI