000
AXPZ20 KNHC 181537
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC WED APR 18 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N77W 9N90W 10N106W 6N125W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
WITHIN 180 NM OF AXIS FROM 82 TO 110W.  ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 
180 NM OF AXIS FROM 115 TO 140W.  

...DISCUSSION...
PATTERN IS RELATIVELY STATIONARY IN THE TROPICAL/SUBTROPICAL 
PACIFIC WITH A MID-UPPER TROUGH ALONG 120W DOWN TO ABOUT 15N AND 
A MID-UPPER RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA.  FLOW ALONG EAST SIDE OF 
TROUGH IS DRAWING UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS UP TO BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.

AT THE SURFACE...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THE REGION WITH A 1036 MB HIGH CENTER 
NEAR 37N147W.  NE TRADEWINDS OF UP TO 25 KT ARE BEING PRODUCED 
WEST OF 125W IN THE MODEST PRESSURE GRADIENT REGION.  MODERATE 
NORTHERLIES CONTINUE JUST WEST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATED 
WITH THE DECAYING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS WILL LIKELY CAUSE 
A BRIEF PERIOD OF NW WINDS TO 20 KT IN THE SEA OF CORTEX. 
ADDITIONALLY...NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOWS ARE LIKELY TO OCCUR IN 
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.  DESPITE A FEW FLAREUPS OF CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ...NO DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES ARE YET PRESENT.  
EVEN THE SOMEWHAT WEAK MONSOONAL SW FLOW ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE 
OF THE ITCZ IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN DURING THE NEXT WEEK OR SO.  
LOOKS LIKE THE PACIFIC TROPICAL SEASON WILL NOT BE STARTING 
EARLY IN 2007.

$$
LANDSEA