000
AXPZ20 KNHC 171553
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 8N100W 5N115W 5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 150NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 125W AND W OF 135W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CENTERED OVER N MEXICO AND SW US 
WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HR.  THIS IS INDUCING LITTLE 
SIGNIFICANT WX IN THE NE PACIFIC...EXCEPT FOR THE ADVECTION OF 
HIGH DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM THE ITCZ TO OVER BAJA CALIFORNIA AND 
MAINLAND MEXICO.  A WEAK CUTOFF LOW EXISTS NEAR THE WESTERN 
BOUNDARY BETWEEN 10 AND 20N ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL 
SUBSIDENCE.  ELSEWHERE THE UPPER LEVELS ARE DOMINATED BY THE MID 
TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER CENTRAL AMERICA AND EXTENDING 
WESTWARD OVER THE NE PACIFIC.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1041 MB CENTERED AT 38N147W IS 
FORCING MODERATE NE TRADES AND WIND WAVES IN THE SUBTROPICAL NE 
PACIFIC.  A WEAK ITCZ DISTURBANCE NEAR 10N102W HAS BEEN 
GENERATING SOME PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...DESPITE 
WARM SSTS...THE LACK OF MUCH LOW LEVEL VORTICITY AND TOO MUCH 
VERTICAL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE NO TROPICAL 
DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM.  

THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WIND EVENT HAS ENDED.  THE SURGE ACROSS 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO IS DOWN TO 20 KT AND LIKELY WILL END WITHIN 
THE NEXT 12 HR. NO SIGNIFICANT GAP FLOW EVENTS ARE LIKELY TO 
OCCUR WITHIN FEW DAYS.

$$
CHRIS LANDSEA