000
AXPZ20 KNHC 170948
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 17 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 3N78W  8N96W  5N140W.  SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION
WITHIN 210NM OF AXIS W OF 93W.  

...DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC VORTEX MOVING RAPIDLY NE AS MID/UPPER LEVEL 
RIDGE OVER GULF OF MEXICO AS OF 25N REMAINS UNMOVABLE...EVEN BY 
THIS STRONG LONGWAVE TROUGH.  STRONG JET CORE 130 KT NOW OVER 
WRN TEXAS PULLING AWAY FROM VORTEX.  TROUGH REMAINS WITH VERY 
DRY AIR MASS WITHIN 240 NM OF AXIS.  ITCZ UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS 
MOISTURE BEING ADVECTED BY JET CORE INTO SW TEXAS AND EVENTUALLY 
OVER WRN GULF OF MEXICO WHERE HIGH PRES NOW REIGNS.  LITTLE 
CHANCE OF ANY UPLIFT MECHANISM S OF 30N...BUT UPPER LEVEL 
DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER NW TEXAS AND OKLAHOMA COULD PROMPT 
CONVECTION LATER TODAY WITH THE HELP OF DAYTIME HEATING.  

BACK TO THE E PAC...ANTICYCLONIC FLOW W OF 120W INTERRUPTED BY 
WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALONG 130W.  ONLY DETECTABLE MOISTURE W OF 
127W IS ALONG ITCZ S OF 6N OR N OF 28N W OF 137W AS NEW LONGWAVE 
TROUGH APPROACHES NW CORNER OF FORECAST WATERS.  

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES 1041 MB CENTERED AT 39N150W KEEPS LID 
OVER VERTICAL DEVELOPMENT AS ONLY BKN TO OVERCAST STRATIFIED CU 
N OD 15N W OF 115W.  HEALTHY TRADES N OF 15N W OF 115W TO 
CONTINUE AS LONG AS RIDGE MAINTAINS ITS HOLD OVER BASIN.  

SURGE OF STRONG N WINDS EXPECTED N OF 25N E OF 125W.  SIMILARLY 
GAP WINDS CROSSING ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO INTO E PAC...BUT 
SHOULD SUBSIDE WITHIN 12 HRS.  GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WINDS VEER 
SE THEN S AS GULF OF MEXICO RIDGE MOVES EWD ENDING LATEST GALE 
EPISODE. 

$$
WALLY BARNES