000 AXPZ20 KNHC 161622 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC MON APR 16 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 7N85W 9N94W 5N105W 5N110W 6N120W 3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 125W-128W...AND ALSO WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 93W-97.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 4N-10N BETWEEN 102W-110W...AND WITHIN 120 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-121W. ...DISCUSSION... A DEEP LAYERED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING ESE ABOUT 15 KT IS OVER WRN ARIZONA WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING S INTO THE AREA THROUGH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND CONTINUING SW THROUGH 25N115W TO 23N122W AND W TO 24N128W. THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS NW TO N BEHIND THE TROUGH WITH SATELLITE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWING STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF THE TROUGH AND E OF 130W. W OF 128W THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW THEN BECOMES ANTICYCLONIC DUE TO MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 28N139W. A RIDGE EXTENDS NE FROM THIS CIRCULATION TO WELL BEYOND THE AREA AT 32N131W EACHING AS FAR AS THE NW U.S. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE NE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE LOSING ITS IDENTITY. TO THE S OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION....A SOMEWHAT WEAK AND ELONGATED UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS SEEN ON WATER VAPOR TO BE NEAR 18N134W AND MOVING ENE 15-20 KT. A TROUGH EXTENDS FROM THIS FEATURE S THROUGH 13N134W AND SW TO 6N135W. MODERATE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR COVERS THE AREA TO THE W OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...AND ALSO N OF 18N W OF 130W. A SUBTROPICAL JETSTREAM BRANCH EXTENDS FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH NEAR 7N134W NEWD THROUGH 15N127W 20N116W TO ACROSS SRN BAJA CALIFORNIA AND NRN MEXICO. RIPPLES OF ENERGY ARE SEEN ALONG THE JET E OF 125W. MAXIMUM JET CORE WINDS ARE IN THE RANGE OF 70-95W AS SEEN ON UPPER AIR DATA FROM SATELLITE -DERIVED WINDS. THE FLOW IS STRONG FROM THE NW OVER THE FAR SW PORTION OF THE AREA S OF THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH. TO THE SE OF THE JET STREAM THE FLOW IS BROAD ANTICYCLONICALLY WITH A MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE WRN CARIBBEAN NEWD TO 13N115W. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS FROM ITCZ CONVECTION IS BEING TRANSPORTED N-NE TO ACROSS SE MEXICO AND THE NRN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA. ITCZ CONVECTION REMAINS FAIRLY ACTIVE UNDER THE RIDGE E OF 110W. A WEAK UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION MOVING W 5-10 KT IS NEAR 3N102W. MODERATE SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR IS NOTED S OF THE ITCZ 108W. AT THE SURFACE...A 1034 MB HIGH CENTERED N OF THE REGION NEAR 35N136.5W EXTENDS A RIDGE SEWD THROUGH 29N133W 24N125W TO 23N114W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 15N W OF 113W. WEAK TROUGH IS REVEALED ON THE PRES ANALYSIS TO BE ALONG BAJA CALIFORNIA WITH NW FLOW OF 20 KT ADJACENT THE BAJA PACIFIC COAST. GAP WINDS...THE LATE SEASON GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC GALE SHOULD CONTINUE FOR AT LEAST ANOTHER 6-9 HRS BEFORE DIMINISHING. QUIKSCAT DATA FROM THIS MORNING CLEARLY SHOWED NE WINDS OF 30-45 KT IN THAT AREA...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT HIGHER THAN WHAT MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEEN INDICATING IN PREVIOUS DAYS. QUIKSCAT DATA ALSO SHOWED NE-E 20-25 KT WINDS OVER AND NEAR THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. SHOULD EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH IN ABOUT 36 HRS AS GRADIENT OVER GUATEMALA AND HONDURAS WEAKENS. $$ AGUIRRE