000
AXPZ20 KNHC 151002
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SUN APR 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N81W 5N92W 8N115W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID / UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CENTER AT 32N117W HAS TROUGH SW TO 
24N120W AND 18N140W ENERGIZED BY FAST MOVING SHORT WAVE AT 
VORTEX.  TROUGH SUPPORTING SURFACE LOW PRES OVER SRN CALIFORNIA 
THAT TIGHTENS GRADIENT WITH HEALTHY HIGH PRES 1034 MB JUST NW OF 
BASIN.  MODERATE TO STRONG TRADES W OF 125W AND STRONG NW 
RUBBING AGAINST W COAST LIFTING SEAS TO 12 FT.  UPPER TROUGH 
BRINGS STRONG JET STREAM...OVER 150 KT...INTO NE CORNER OF BASIN 
ASSOCIATED WITH SHORT WAVE.  

SRN PART OF UPPER TROUGH BRINGS 95 KT JET CORE INTO SWRN PORTION 
OF E PAC WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE ADVECTED INTO ITCZ TO WARRANT 
SOME DEVELOPMENT...BUT STILL LACK UPLIFT EXCEPT FROM 113W TO 
123W WHERE WEAK SURFACE TROUGH TRIES TO DEVELOP WITH LITTLE 
SUCCESS. 

MOST OF REMAINING AREA E OF UPPER TROUGH REMAINS UNDER MID/UPPER 
LEVEL RIDGE CENTERED OVER SOUTH AMERICA.  UPPER DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN TROUGH AND RIDGE ENHANCES CONVECTION ALONG ITCZ E OF 
98W.  

AT TH4E SURFACE...
STRONG 1034 MB HIGH PRES CENTER AT 344N137W HAS RIDGE EXTEND TO 
18N115W.  HIGH PRES MOVE E NEXT 48 HRS INCREASING TRADE WINDS W 
OF 125W AND ALONG COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

GAP WINDS...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FOR GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC AT 
12Z SUN IS SHORT-LIVED AS HIGH PRES OVER GULF OF MEXICO SOON 
GIVES WAY TO RETURN FLOW OVER WRN GULF.  WEAKENED RIDGE OVER 
ATLC RELAXED NE TRADES CUTTING OFF FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA.

$$
WALLY BARNES