000
AXPZ20 KNHC 150331
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 15 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 8N81W 5N92W 8N115W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS E OF 95W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE ACROSS AND 
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS BECOMING SLIGHTLY NEGATIVE-TILT ALONG 122W N OF 30N. THE TROUGH 
IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT EVIDENCED BY SCT/BKN LOW CLOUDS OFF 
THE SRN CALIF COAST. A NARROW MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 
6N107W SW TO EQ122W. SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 14N111W NE 
THROUGH 18N108W ACROSS MEXICO WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75-90 KT. BROAD 
MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SE OF JET STREAM. 
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE BETWEEN 108W-117W IS IN ADVANCE OF A 
WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVING E 15-20 KT ALONG 125W FROM 
10N-19N. CONVECTION IS SPORADIC E OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 100W-110W. NWP MODELS SUGGEST UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL 
CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK ALLOWING FOR UPPER MOISTURE TO 
CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

A STRONG 1036 MB HIGH CENTER IS N OF AREA NEAR 34N138W WITH A RIDGE 
EXTENDING THROUGH 27N126W TO 18N115W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 
14N W OF 116W. HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY ESE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS 
INCREASING TRADE WINDS OVER WRN HALF OF THE AREA. NW WINDS INCREASE 
SUN OVER THE NE PART NEAR THE COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL. WAVE 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS BUILDING TO 12 FT OVER NE PART MON 
EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE A LITTLE TUE BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WED 
THROUGH FRI AS NW FLOW INCREASES OVER THE NE PART ONCE AGAIN DUE TO 
A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

GAP WINDS...GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BEGINNING 12Z SUN AND LASTING ABOUT 24 HRS. A STRONG COLD FRONT OVER 
THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EWD TODAY...BUT THE PUSH 
WILL BE SHORT-LIVED AS NORTHERLY WINDS IN THE GULF OF MEX QUICKLY 
VEER SE MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER TROUGH.

$$
MUNDELL