000
AXPZ20 KNHC 142137
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT APR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N78W 5N90W 8N105 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 60 NM OF AXIS W OF 135W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
90 NM OF AXIS E OF 92W.

...DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN REMAINS AMPLIFIED AND PROGRESSIVE ACROSS AND 
JUST NORTH OF THE DISCUSSION AREA. A FAST MOVING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
IS DIGGING SWD INTO THE AREA AND BECOMING NEGATIVELY TILTED ALONG 
124W N OF 30N. THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A WEAK COLD FRONT EVIDENCED 
BY SCATTERED TO BROKEN LOW CLOUDS OFF THE SRN CALIF COAST. BROAD 
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NOTED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY S OF 13N W OF 127W. A 
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS FROM 6N107W SW TO EQ122W. SUBTROPICAL 
JET STREAM EXTENDS FROM 14N111W NE THROUGH 18N108W ACROSS MEXICO 
WITH MAXIMUM WINDS OF 75-90 KT. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC 
FLOW COVERS THE AREA SE OF JET STREAM. WEAK UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE 
BETWEEN 108W-117W IS IN ADVANCE OF A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH 
MOVING E 15-20 KT ALONG 125W FROM 10N-19N. CONVECTION IS SPORADIC E 
OF THE TROUGH ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 100W-110W. NWP MODELS SUGGEST 
UPPER LEVEL FLOW REGIME WILL CHANGE LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK 
ALLOWING FOR UPPER MOISTURE TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION.

AT THE SURFACE...A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH CENTER IS N OF AREA NEAR 
34N139W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH 27N126W TO 18N115W. HIGH PRES 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 14N W OF 116W. HIGH IS FORECAST TO BUILD ESE 
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK INCREASING THE TRADE WIND FLOW OVER THE WRN 
PORTION OF THE AREA. NW WINDS INCREASE SUN OVER THE NE PART NEAR THE 
COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AS WELL. WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SEAS 
BUILDING TO 12 FT OVER NE PART MON EVENING...THEN SUBSIDE A LITTLE 
TUE BEFORE BUILDING ONCE AGAIN WED THROUGH FRI AS NW FLOW INCREASES 
OVER THE NE PART ONCE AGAIN DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRES GRADIENT.

GAP WINDS...GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
BEGINNING 12Z SUN AND LASTING FOR ABOUT 24-30 HRS. A STRONG SPRING 
COLD FRONT OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO WILL QUICKLY SWEEP EWD ACROSS 
THE GULF OF MEXICO THROUGH SUN EVENING.

$$
MUNDELL