000
AXPZ20 KNHC 140332
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SAT APR 14 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N83W 9N105W 4N125W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 117W AND 130W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID-LATITUDE FEATURES SHOWING RAPID E-W PROGRESSION...INDICATIVE OF 
ACTIVE JET STREAM DISPLACED WELL SOUTH OF USUAL POSITION. DEEP MID 
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM LOW IN NEW MEXICO TO 25N108W TO 22N117W. 
FAST MOVING MID LEVEL RIDGE AXIS ALONG 124W N OF 20N. DEEP MID LEVEL 
TROUGH RACING PAST NW PART OF DISCUSSION AREA WITH AXIS ALONG 136W. 
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED ALONG E COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 
13N83W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD IN DEEP TROPICS TO 7N110W. 
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT OVER THE ITCZ BUT NOTICEABLE LACK OF CONVECTIVE 
ACTIVITY PAST 6-12 HOURS. SUBTROPICAL JET STARTS AROUND 14N121W... 
PASSES THROUGH 20N108W...AND EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO TO NRN 
GULF OF MEXICO. MAX WINDS ARE 80-85 KT JUST W OF GUADALAJARA MEX.

STRONG 1032 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 34N146W WITH SFC RIDGE BUILDING SE 
INTO DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 26N125W TO 19N109W. PRES GRADIENT ALONG 
NRN BAJA COAST HAS RELAXED...WITH QUIKSCAT AND SFC OBS SHOWING WINDS 
OCCASIONALLY TO 20 KT IN FAR NE PORTION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL TRANSLATE
INTO SEAS ABATING W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT 6-18 HOURS AS NW SWELLS 
SPREAD OUT FROM SOURCE REGION. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR 30N140W. 
THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NW PART OF AREA DURING NEXT 6-12 HRS 
WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW SWELLS AND A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHTER TRADE WINDS EARLY SAT. HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF 
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING INCREASE IN NE TRADES OVER NW PORTION.

AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO 
EARLY SUN WILL PRODUCE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCELERATED GAP WINDS IN 
THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN AFTERNOON THROUGH MON MORNING. WITH 30 
KT WINDS LIKELY AND 35 KT GALES A STRONG POSSIBILITY...HAVE PUT GALE 
WARNING IN HIGH SEAS FORECAST STARTING AT 15/18Z.

$$
MUNDELL