000
AXPZ20 KNHC 132135
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC FRI APR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N83W 9N105W 4N125W 4N140W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 
60 NM OF AXIS W OF 115W.

...DISCUSSION...
MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM UPPER LOW IN SRN NEW MEXICO TO 25N113W 
TO 20N125W. A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS N-S ALONG 130W N OF 20N. UPPER 
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS CENTERED ALONG THE E COAST OF NICARAGUA NEAR 
13N83W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING WESTWARD IN THE DEEP TROPICS TO 7N110W.
DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT HAS BEEN ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 98W 
AND 113W...BUT SHOWING A SHARP DECREASE IN ACTIVITY OVER PAST 6 HOURS
WITH JUST CIRRUS DEBRIS REMAINING. THE SUBTROPICAL JET STARTS AROUND
14N114W...PASSES THROUGH 19N109W...AND EXTENDS ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
TO 24N97W. MAX WINDS ARE 70-80 KT JUST W OF GUADALAJARA MEX.

1029 MB HIGH PRES NEAR 33N144W WITH SFC RIDGE EXTENDING SE INTO THE 
DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 26N125W TO 19N109W. PRES GRADIENT ALONG NRN 
BAJA COAST HAS RELAXED A BIT...AND 14Z QUIKSCAT CONFIRMS WIND SPEEDS 
NOW LESS THAN 25 KT IN FAR NE PORTION. LIGHTER WINDS WILL TRANSLATE 
INTO SEAS ABATING W OF BAJA CALIFORNIA NEXT 12-24 HOURS AS NW SWELLS 
SPREAD OUT FROM SOURCE REGION. A WEAK FRONT EXTENDS TO NEAR 30N140W. 
THIS FRONT WILL BRUSH PAST THE NW PART OF AREA DURING NEXT 12 HOURS 
WITH LITTLE EFFECT OTHER THAN A SLIGHT INCREASE IN NW SWELLS AND 
LIGHTER TRADE WINDS.

HIGH PRES BUILDS N OF THE AREA OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING AN INCREASE 
IN NE TRADES OVER NW PORTION. FURTHER EAST...AN UNSEASONABLY STRONG 
COLD FRONT ENTERING WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO EARLY SUN WILL PRODUCE A 
BRIEF PERIOD OF ACCELERATED GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC SUN 
EVENING AND SUN NIGHT. AT THIS POINT...30 KT WINDS ARE LIKELY AND 35 
KT GALES ARE POSSIBLE. 

$$
MUNDELL