000
AXPZ20 KNHC 130330
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC FRI APR 13 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0300 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N85W 9N102W 6N115W 6N125W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 60 NM OF 9N85W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 95W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
LARGE SCALE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC 
WITH A FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRANSITING NE PART OF THE AREA 
THROUGH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 21N120W. W OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N 
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 133W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
IS NOTED FROM 5N TO 20N E OF 105W. ITCZ CONVECTION UNDERNEATH THIS 
FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT WITH THE INTENSITY
AND COVERAGE OF ITCZ CONVECTION SHOWING SIGNIFICANT INCREASE PAST 12 
TO 24 HOURS. ACTIVE CONVECTION IS CONCENTRATED BETWEEN 105W-120W. A 
SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS NE FROM 14N117W ACROSS MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 60-70 KT NEAR THE 
JET CORE.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM HIGH NEAR 33N131W TO 18N112W. BROAD HIGH PRES COVERS THE 
AREA N OF 13N W OF 117W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER FAR NE PART OF THE 
AREA BEHIND AN OLD FRONT PRODUCING MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS AND 
10-15 FT SWELLS W OF NRN BAJA PENINSULA. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD SE 
BUT SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 48 HRS. LATEST NWP MODELS SUGGEST 
THAT A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF 
THE AREA IN 36 HRS FOLLOWED BY MINOR SURGE OF NW SWELL OF 8 TO 9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL