000
AXPZ20 KNHC 122132
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC THU APR 12 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2100 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 9N85W 8N106W 4N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG 
CONVECTION WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 83W AND 120W.

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC WITH A 
FAST MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXPANDING INTO THE NE PART OF THE AREA 
THROUGH NRN BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 22N128W. W OF THE TROUGH N OF 20N 
A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG 136W. BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING 
IS NOTED FROM 5N TO 20N E OF 105W. ITCZ CONVECTION UNDERNEATH THIS 
FLOW IS BEING ENHANCED BY THE DIVERGENT FLOW ALOFT...AND INTENSITY 
AND COVERAGE OF ITCZ HAS INCREASED PAST 12-24 HOURS. A SUBTROPICAL 
JET EXTENDS FROM 14N117W NEWD ACROSS MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO. SATELLITE 
DERIVED WINDS SHOW MAXIMUM WINDS AROUND 60-70 KT NEAR THE JET CORE.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION 
AREA FROM 1029 MB HIGH NEAR 32N132W TO 18N112W. BROAD HIGH PRES 
COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 117W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER FAR NE 
PART OF THE AREA BEHIND A DECAYING COLD FRONT PRODUCING STRONG NW 
FLOW AND LARGE NW SWELLS W OF BAJA PENINSULA...WITH A MAX TO 15 FT 
NEAR SAN DIEGO. THESE SWELLS WILL SPREAD SE AND SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HRS. LATEST NWP MODELS SUGGEST THAT A WEAKENING COLD 
FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE EXTREME NW CORNER OF THE AREA IN ABOUT 48 
HRS FOLLOWED BY MINOR SURGE OF NW SWELL MAXING OUT AT 8 TO 9 FT.

$$
MUNDELL