000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111625 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED APR 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 7N90W 6N100W 3N110W 4N120W 4N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 95W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-89W. ...DISCUSSION... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH W TO NW FLOW PRESENT N OF 24N E OF 123W AND NW FLOW W OF 131W. A SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATES BOTH OF THESE FLOW AREAS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 32N123W SW THROUGH 25N128W TO 20N136W TO SW OF THE AREA NEAR 18N140W. TO ITS SE... BROAD DIFFUSE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED FROM 11N-24N BETWEEN 111W-129W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 117W. A WEAK MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 12N118.5W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 109W FROM 15N-25N...AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING WRN MEXICO. CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 16N E OF 115W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 14N140W NEWD THROUGH 20N135W THEN E THROUGH 22N125W AND THEN DIVES SEWD TO 16N114W AND NE TO ACROSS MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW CORE SPEEDS OF 60-90 KT WITH THE JET STREAM. THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 6N E OF 100W REMAINS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 93W. THIS WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NW PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD FROM ITCZ CONVECTION TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. NWP INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY SW TO W BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH VERY STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE FAR SW PORTION DUE TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL SW OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N132W 24N122W TO NEAR 17N123W. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CENTER WAS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W AS 1028 MB. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 113W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA IS LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND LARGE SWELLS COMBINED FROM THOSE FROM THE S AND NW TO AFFECT THIS PORTION OF THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. FOR SW AND W FACING COASTAL AREAS...SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ON THE ORDER OF 14-15 SECONDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWARD FACING COASTAL RESORT AREAS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR TODAY. $$ AGUIRRE 000 AXPZ20 KNHC 111625 RRA TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 1605 UTC WED APR 11 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1545 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 8N82W 7N90W 6N100W 3N110W 4N120W 4N130W 2N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS FROM 6N-8N BETWEEN 95W-99W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 100W-106W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-89W. ...DISCUSSION... PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH W TO NW FLOW PRESENT N OF 24N E OF 123W AND NW FLOW W OF 131W. A SHEARED MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS SEPARATES BOTH OF THESE FLOW AREAS EXTENDING ROUGHLY FROM 32N123W SW THROUGH 25N128W TO 20N136W TO SW OF THE AREA NEAR 18N140W. TO ITS SE... BROAD DIFFUSE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS NOTED FROM 11N-24N BETWEEN 111W-129W WITH A RIDGE AXIS ALONG 117W. A WEAK MID/UPPER ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS NEAR 12N118.5W. A WEAK MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS ALONG 109W FROM 15N-25N...AND IS QUICKLY APPROACHING WRN MEXICO. CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS RESULTING IN STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY AIR N OF 16N E OF 115W. A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 14N140W NEWD THROUGH 20N135W THEN E THROUGH 22N125W AND THEN DIVES SEWD TO 16N114W AND NE TO ACROSS MEXICO NEAR ACAPULCO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS SHOW CORE SPEEDS OF 60-90 KT WITH THE JET STREAM. THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC N OF 6N E OF 100W REMAINS BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC AND BECOMES INCREASINGLY OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 93W. THIS WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG THE COASTS OF COSTA RICA AND NW PANAMA. UPPER LEVEL DEBRIS CLOUDINESS IS BEING ADVECTED NEWD FROM ITCZ CONVECTION TOWARDS SE MEXICO AND MUCH OF CENTRAL AMERICA. NWP INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY SW TO W BY THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH VERY STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE FAR SW PORTION DUE TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL SW OF THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA THROUGH 32N132W 24N122W TO NEAR 17N123W. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH CENTER WAS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC JUST N OF THE AREA NEAR 34N135W AS 1028 MB. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 113W. TIGHT PRES GRADIENT OVER THE FAR NE PART OF THE AREA IS LEADING TO STRONG NW FLOW AND LARGE SWELLS COMBINED FROM THOSE FROM THE S AND NW TO AFFECT THIS PORTION OF THE AREA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO OVER THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. FOR SW AND W FACING COASTAL AREAS...SEAS IN THE 7-8 FT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD SWELLS ON THE ORDER OF 14-15 SECONDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC AND THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AS WELL AS THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE WATCH MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWARD FACING COASTAL RESORT AREAS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR TODAY. $$ AGUIRRE