000
AXPZ20 KNHC 101558
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE APR 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1545 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N78W 6N90W 6N100W 7N110W 5N120W 
5N140W. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION EXISTS N OF 5N BETWEEN 
83W-85W. SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 120 NM N OF
THE AXIS BETWEEN 119W-121W.

...DISCUSSION...

PROGRESSIVE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE OBSERVED OVER THE DISCUSSION
AREA WITH W TO NW FLOW COVERING THE AREA N OF 18N AS RATHER
BROAD DIFFUSE MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING IS FOUND THERE. A SHORT
WAVE TROUGH THAT EARLIER OVER THE FAR ERN PORTION OF THE PACIFIC
HAS MOVED EWD ACROSS MEXICO...AND IS NOW ENTERING THE EXTREME
WRN GULF OF MEXICO. CONFLUENT FLOW BEHIND THE TROUGH IS LEADING
TO AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE AND ASSOCIATED DRY
AIR N OF 17N E OF 123W. THE BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND 
THE CONFLUENT ZONE IS DEFINED BY A SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM BRANCH
THAT EXTENDS FROM 19N128W SWED THROUGH 16N119W THEN E ALONG
16N115W TO 15N107W AND NEWD TO ACROSS MEXICO AT 17N100W. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS REVEALED CORE SPEEDS OF 70-95 KT. 
SHARPENING MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDS THROUGH 11.5N113W 
14N122W...THEN NW THROUGH 17N127W TO 21.5N130W. THEN RIDGE IS 
LIFTING N WITH TIME AS A WEAK ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION 
OVER THE FAR W SECTION NEAR 16.5N139.5W MOVES NNE ABOUT 15 KT.

THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 104W REMAINS 
BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC IN NATURE AND BECAME INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT 
OVER THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 90W. THIS WAS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG THE COASTS OF SRN COSTA RICA
AND NW PANAMA. STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW JUST S OF THE JTST 
NOTED ABOVE WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NEWD 
OVER MEXICO AND THE ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. UPPER LEVEL
FLOW IS FORECAST TO BE GENERALLY SW TO W BY THE END OF THE
WEEK...WITH VERY STRONG NW FLOW OVER THE FAR SW PORTION DUE
TO THE NRN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CENTER WELL 
SW OF THE AREA.

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS INTO THE DISCUSSION
AREA THROUGH 32N131W 24N122W TO 19N114W. THE ASSOCIATED HIGH
CENTER WAS ANALYZED AT 12 UTC TO BE N OF THE AREA NEAR 32N132W.
HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 13N W OF 113W.

ON THE MARINE FRONT...SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS ON THE ORDER OF 15-16 SECONDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC AND THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AS WELL AS 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE WATCH 
MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THESE SWELLS SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE 
OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND 
DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWARD FACING COASTAL 
RESORT AREAS REMAINS A POSSIBILITY FOR TODAY.  

$$
AGUIRRE