000
AXPZ20 KNHC 100907
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE APR 10 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N77W 6N98W 9N110W 6N115W 5N120W 6N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE 
TO STRONG WITHIN 60 NM OF 7.5N82.5W. SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 
120 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 88W AND 95W...AND W OF 137W.

...DISCUSSION...
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 
FLAT MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 19N 
BETWEEN 110W AND 138W. SHORT WAVE TROUGH TO THE E OF THE 
ANTICYCLONE EXTENDED FROM A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION OVER THE TEXAS 
PANHANDLE SWD THROUGH THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO ERN MEXICO TO A 
BASE NEAR 17N108W. 

ELONGATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST TO THE W OF THE AREA NEAR 
16N141W WAS DRIFTING WWD WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE 
CIRCULATION PULLING UP HIGH LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD TO ALONG 
20N W OF 125W. THE FLOW WAS INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FROM 10N TO 
22N E OF 125W AND MANIFESTED ITSELF IN A SUBTROPICAL JTST AXIS 
WHICH EXTENDED THROUGH 14N120W 17N105W ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO 
INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED 
CORE SPEEDS OF 90-110 KT.  

THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 103W WAS BROADLY 
ANTICYCLONIC IN NATURE AND BECAME INCREASINGLY DIFLUENT OVER
THE TROPICAL PACIFIC E OF 90W. THIS WAS ENHANCING CONVECTION 
ALONG THE ITCZ ALONG THE COAST OF PANAMA AND COSTA RICA. 
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW JUST S OF THE JTST NOTED ABOVE WAS 
ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE DEBRIS NEWD OVER MEXICO AND THE 
ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. 

AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM 30N136W TO 
17N110W WITH FRESH NE TRADES TO THE S OF THE RIDGE BETWEEN 8N 
AND 18N W OF 125W. SEAS IN THE 8-9 FT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS ON THE ORDER OF 15-16 SECONDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC AND THE COASTS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO AS WELL AS 
THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA. HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE WATCH 
MODEL INDICATES THIS LONG PERIOD S TO SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL 
HAS HAD ITS MAXIMUM IMPACT ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND 
MEXICAN PACIFIC COASTS AND SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE OVER THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO. HOWEVER...THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND DANGEROUS 
BREAKING SURF ALONG THE SOUTHWARD FACING COASTAL RESORT AREAS 
REMAINS A POSSIBILITY TODAY.  

$$
COBB