000
AXPZ20 KNHC 090929
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC MON APR 09 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0915 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 5N77W 7N100W 10N109W 6N115W 7N135W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE TO STRONG WITHIN 120-180 NM N OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 102W 
AND 105W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 120 NM OF 
THE AXIS BETWEEN 108W AND 112W...AND WITHIN 90-120 NM OF THE 
AXIS BETWEEN 120W AND 134W.

...DISCUSSION...
AMPLIFIED PATTERN IN PLACE OVER THE DISCUSSION AREA WITH A 
RATHER EXTENSIVE MID TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE NEAR 23N135W
WHICH DOMINATED THE AREA N OF 19N W OF 117W. SHORT WAVE TROUGH
TO THE E OF THE ANTICYCLONE EXTENDED FROM ARIZONA SWD THROUGH 
30N110W DOWN THE SEA OF CORTEZ TO A BASE NEAR 17N116W. 

RATHER WELL DEFINED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION JUST TO THE W OF THE 
AREA WAS TRAPPED BENEATH THE ANTICYCLONE NOTED ABOVE NEAR 13N144W
WITH SWLY FLOW ALOFT E OF THE CIRCULATION PULLING UP SOME HIGH 
LEVEL TROPICAL MOISTURE NWD TO ALONG 15N W OF 130W. THE FLOW WAS 
INCREASINGLY CONFLUENT FROM 10N TO 20N BETWEEN 120W AND 130W AND 
MANIFESTED ITSELF IN A SUBTROPICAL JTST AXIS WHICH EXTENDED 
THROUGH 16N120W 20N106W ACROSS NRN MEXICO INTO THE SRN CONUS. 
SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATED CORE SPEEDS OF 90-120 KT.  

THE FLOW OVER THE TROPICAL E PACIFIC E OF 105W WAS BROADLY 
ANTICYCLONIC IN NATURE AND SOMEWHAT DIFLUENT. THIS WAS ENHANCING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ SW OF COSTA RICA AND BETWEEN 102W AND 
105W. UPPER LEVEL SWLY FLOW WAS ADVECTING UPPER LEVEL CONVECTIVE 
DEBRIS NEWD OVER MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA.  

AT THE SURFACE...A WEAKENING COLD FRONT WAS JUST TO THE NW OF 
THE AREA AND WAS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE AREA LATER TODAY WITH 
MINIMAL IMPACT. OTHERWISE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM 
28N140W TO 17N108W WITH FRESH NE TRADES TO THE S BETWEEN 8N AND 
18N W OF 120W. HIGH SEAS IN THE 8-10 FT RANGE WITH LONG PERIOD 
SWELLS ON THE ORDER OF 16-20 SECONDS ARE NOTED OVER THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC S OF 10N-12N. HIGH RESOLUTION WAVE WATCH MODEL INDICATES 
THIS LONG PERIOD S TO SW CROSS EQUATORIAL SWELL WILL ARRIVE 
ALONG THE CENTRAL AMERICAN AND MEXICAN PACIFIC COASTS TODAY WITH 
THE POTENTIAL FOR LARGE AND DANGEROUS BREAKING SURF ALONG THE 
MEXICAN COASTAL RESORTS. 

$$
COBB