000
AXPZ20 KNHC 070942
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC SAT APR 7 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0900 UTC.

...ITCZ...
AXIS 6N78W 7N100W 4N115W 4N135W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED 
STRONG CONVECTION WITHIN 90-120 NM S OF AXIS BETWEEN 85W AND 123W.

...DISCUSSION...
SOMEWHAT PROGRESSIVE PATTERN DOMINATES SUBTROPICS WITH A SERIES OF 
TROUGHS AND RIDGES PASSING THE DISCUSSION AREA N OF 20N. A CUT-OFF 
MID/UPPER LOW OVER ARIZONA IS MOVING ESEWD. A TRAILING TROUGH HEADS 
SWWD FROM THE LOW THROUGH NORTHERN BAJA TO 20N130W. CONFLUENT FLOW 
ALOFT PRODUCING AREA OF STRONG SUBSIDENCE ALONG TROUGH AXIS S OF 25N.
SUBTROPICAL JET STREAM ENTERS THE DISCUSSION AREA NEAR 16N140W THEN 
EXTENDS NEWD THROUGH 21N125W ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO. A BROAD UPPER 
RIDGE AXIS IS OVER CENTRAL MEXICO ALONG 100W. 

A WEAK COLD FRONT IN THE FAR NW CORNER OF THE REGION IS ASSOCIATED 
WITH A TROUGH LIFTING N OF THE AREA. LACKING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT 
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL STEADILY DECREASE...BUT NW SWELLS WILL SPREAD 
SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THIS AREA NEXT 12-36 HOURS.

IN THE DEEP TROPICS A MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM NEAR 11N106W SW 
TO EQ110W. THIS TROUGH IS ENHANCING ITCZ CONVECTION BETWEEN 105W AND 
120W. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING ALONG 6N EAST OF THE TROUGH 
IS SUPPORTING CONVECTION ELSEWHERE ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 85W AND 
99W. THE TROUGH MOVES EAST THROUGH SAT THEN DISSIPATES EARLY SUN. 
BROAD MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA SOUTH OF 10N 
WEST OF THE TROUGH.

GAP WINDS IN THE GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AND 
SEAS WILL ABATE BELOW 8 FT WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PAPAGAYO WINDS
MAY BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 20 KT THIS MORNING AND AGAIN SUN MORNING DUE 
TO LOCAL TOPOGRAPHY EFFECTS.

$$
MUNDELL