000
AXPZ20 KNHC 021510
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON APR 02 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 6N78W 7N115W 5N125W 3N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 5N TO 8N E OF 79W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE WITHIN 90 NM S OF AXIS FROM 83W TO 94W.

...DISCUSSION...

AN AMPLIFIED MID TO UPPER RIDGE RUNS FAIRLY N-S ALONG 132W. THE 
FLOW THEN FOLDS INTO A FAIRLY DEEP TROUGH WITH THE AXIS RUNNING 
FROM THE SW U.S. ACROSS SRN BAJA TO 15N115W. UPPER CONFLUENCE 
BETWEEN THESE FEATURES IS GENERATING A LARGE SWATH OF DRY 
SINKING AIR ALOFT ROUGHLY N OF 15N E OF 125W. A SWLY JET 
ORIGINATES AT THE SE BASE OF THE TROUGH AND EXTENDS ACROSS 
MEXICO AND INTO THE S CENTRAL U.S. CARRYING A PLUME OF MOISTURE 
300 NM E OF A LINE FROM 17N109W 30N101W. THE FAR ERN PORTION OF 
THE AREA IS COVERED BY A VERY BROAD RIDGE CENTERED IN THE 
TROPICAL ATLC. A FEW CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG 
CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE ITCZ AXIS OTHERWISE RATHER 
TRANQUIL WEATHER EXISTS. OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS...THESE 
FEATURES WILL GENERALLY SLIDE E ALLOWING AN UPPER TROUGH AND 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT TO PUSH INTO THE EXTREME NW PORTION OF THE 
AREA INCREASING MOISTURE SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF IT.

AT THE SFC...WEAK HIGH PRES RIDGING IS THE PATTERN. THERE IS A 
WEAK TROUGH ANALYZED ALONG 110W FROM 9N TO 17N...BUT THIS 
FEATURE IS PRODUCING LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE 
OR INCREASED WINDS. SPEAKING OF WINDS...THE TRADES GENERALLY 
PEAK NEAR 20 KT AND ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THAT WAY OVER THE 
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE STRONGEST WINDS...20 TO 25 KT...ARE 
NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF COSTA RICA AND THE SOUTHERN PART OF 
NICARAGUA INCLUDING THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO. THE WINDS HERE ARE 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THAT RANGE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND 
THEN LIKELY COMING DOWN THEREAFTER AS THE PRES GRAD LOOSENS. 

$$
JC/DGS