000 AXPZ20 KNHC 020338 TWDEP TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 0405 UTC MON APR 02 2007 TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS. BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 0245 UTC. ...ITCZ... ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 6N90W 6N100W 5N110W 4N120W 3N130W 4N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 92W AND 95.5W AND BETWEEN 119.5W AND 122W. ...DISCUSSION... W OF 110W... BROAD ANTICYCLONIC RATHER FAST FLOW COVERS THIS PART OF THE AREA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ROUGHLY ALONG 135W. THE RIDGING HAS BECOME AMPLIFIED DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS WITH A CREST STRETCHING WELL N OF THE AREA. AN ASSOCIATED MID/UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE IS OVER THE FAR SRN PART OF THE AREA NEAR THE EQUATOR AT 135W. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 115W N OF 17N. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 18N BETWEEN 110W- 122W INCLUDING NRN MEXICO. A JET STREAM BRANCH CROSSES 140W AT 21N AND EXTENDS THROUGH 20N130W THEN SE TO 16N120W...THEN NE TO 22N110W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS INDICATE MAXIMUM WINDS OF 70-90 KT IN THE JET CORE W OF 125W. AS A RESULT...SCATTERED TO BROKEN THIN CIRRUS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO THE AREA FROM 13N-25N W OF 130W. UPPER CONFLUENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG SUBSIDENCE STREAMING INTO NW MEXICO...PRODUCING MAINLY CLOUD-FREE SKIES N OF 17N E OF E OF 128W EXCEPT FOR A FEW CIRRUS OVER THE MEXICAN PLATEAU. AT THE SURFACE...WEAKENING HIGH PRES CENTER IS ANALYZED N OF THE AREA NEAR 33N131W WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 28N125W TO 23N120W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 117W. OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS MOVING WWD WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE SEEN N OF 15N W OF 130W...AND ALSO FROM 15N-20N BETWEEN 123W-130W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE S AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE DISCUSSION AREA TUE AFTERNOON. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEAK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM. E OF 110W... THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SWLY N OF 16N DUE TO THE ERN PART OF THE JET STREAM BRANCH MENTIONED ABOVE...WHICH CONTINUES NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. HE FLOW THEN BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM 15N-24N BETWEEN 95W-102W AIDING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSTM ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO FROM NEAR PUEBLA N TO NEAR MONTERREY. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 15N95W S TO WELL S OF THE EQUATOR AT 99W. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS FORMING ON THE TROUGH NEAR 2N98W. THE ITCZ IS A LITTLE ACTIVE TO THE E OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 92W-96W. OTHERWISE...THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A BROAD SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT CAPPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA NNE ACROSS THE ERN PORTION OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. ALONG COASTAL SECTIONS...LONG-PERIOD SW SWELLS (MAX PERIODS NEAR 17 SEC) ARE CURRENTLY AFFECTING THE PACIFIC BEACHES FROM COLOMBIA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SECOND SWELL TRAIN WITH 17-18 SEC PERIODS IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST BEGINNING LATE MON... POSSIBLY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER WAVE HEIGHTS. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY ON SW-FACING BEACHES...ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WEEK AS THE SWELLS SLOWLY SUBSIDE. $$ AGUIRRE