000
AXPZ20 KNHC 010340
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0405 UTC SUN APR 01 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0315 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 5N90W 5N101W 5N110W 4N120W 
3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS 
WITHIN 60 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 87W-89W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC RATHER FAST FLOW COVERS THIS PART OF THE AREA
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ROUGHLY ALONG 132W. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 122W N OF 27N. A JET 
STREAM BRANCH CROSSES 140W AT 24N AND EXTENDS THROUGH 23N130W 
THEN ESE 20N120W THEN NE TO 22N110W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 80-100 KT IN THE JET STREAM 
CORE W OF 125W. THIS JET IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE IN 
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A 
RESULT...INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA 
FROM 16N-22N W OF 125W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 
22N BETWEEN 110W-125W INCLUDING NRN MEXICO DUE TO A MID/UPPER 
LEVEL TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW TO 22N112W. UPPER 
CONFLUENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE STREAMING INTO NW MEXICO...PRODUCING MAINLY 
CLOUD-FREE SKIES E OF 127W EXCEPT FOR A FEW CIRRUS OVER THE 
MEXICAN PLATEAU. AT THE SURFACE...HIGH PRES CENTER ANALYZED 
N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N131.5W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING SE THROUGH 
28N125W TO 23N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 16N W OF 
117W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE S AND WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 
FEW DAYS AS A WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE NW PORTION OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE
NW PORTION OF THE AREA LATE NEXT WEAK AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONTAL
SYSTEM.

E OF 110W...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SWLY N OF 16N DUE TO A JET STREAM
SEGMENT THAT CONTINUES FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM
16N-25N E OF 102W AIDING SCATTERED TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO
FROM 17N-20N E OF 99W. S OF 16N THE UPPER LEVEL IS DIVERGENT
WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 9N99W NE TO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N97W S TO 
WELL S OF THE EQUATOR AT 97W. THE ITCZ IS A LITTLE ACTIVE TO THE 
E OF THE TROUGH BETWEEN 87W-89W. OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA IS 
UNDER A BROAD SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT CAPPING ANY SIGNIFICANT 
CONVECTION FROM DEVELOPING WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM 
COLOMBIA NNE ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W CARIBBEAN SEA.

ON THE MARINE FRONT...A SERIES OF LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAINS IS 
AFFECTING THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...WITH PERIODS 
MAXING NEAR 17 SEC. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH 
MON MORNING ESPECIALLY ON THE SW-FACING BEACHES BETWEEN PANAMA 
AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SECOND SWELL TRAIN...WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER
PERIODS IS FORECAST BY WAVE MODEL GUIDANCE TO ARRIVE AT THE 
COAST LATE MON AND SHOULD RESULT IN SIMILAR CONDITIONS.

$$
AGUIRRE