000
AXPZ20 KNHC 312232
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SAT MAR 31 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
2215 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N78W 5N90W 5N100W 5N110W 5N120W 
3N130W 3N140W. SCATTERED MODERATE ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION 
WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 86W-88.5W.

...DISCUSSION...

W OF 110W...
BROAD ANTICYCLONIC RATHER FAST FLOW COVERS THIS PART OF THE AREA
WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ROUGHLY ALONG 132W. A MID/UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS INTO THE AREA ALONG 125W N OF 27N. A JET 
STREAM BRANCH CROSSES 140W AT 23N AND EXTENDS THROUGH 22N130W 
THEN ESE 20N117W THEN NE 20N110W. SATELLITE DERIVED WINDS 
INDICATE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 70-100 KT IN THE JET STREAM 
CORE W OF 125W. THIS JET IS BECOMING A LITTLE MORE ACTIVE IN 
RESPONSE TO A DIGGING TROUGH S OF THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. AS A 
RESULT...INCREASING CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE STREAMING INTO THE AREA 
FROM 16N-22N W OF 125W. BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS THE AREA N OF 
22N E OF 125W INCLUDING NRN MEXICO DUE TO A MID/UPPER LEVEL 
TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM THE SW U.S. SW TO 22N112W. UPPER 
CONFLUENCE INTO THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE STREAMING INTO NW MEXICO...PRODUCING MAINLY 
CLOUD-FREE SKIES E OF 125W EXCEPT FOR A FEW CIRRUS OVER THE 
MEXICAN PLATEAU. HIGH PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SFC...HIGH 
PRES CENTER N OF THE AREA NEAR 36N132.5W HAS A RIDGE EXTENDING 
SE THROUGH 29N124W TO 23N116W. HIGH PRES COVERS THE AREA N OF 
15N W OF 114W. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE S AND WEAKEN OVER 
THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

E OF 110W...
THE MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS SWLY N OF 16N DUE TO A JET STREAM
SEGMENT THAT CONTINUES FROM THE ABOVE MENTIONED JET STREAM BRANCH
NEWD ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO. THE FLOW THEN BECOMES DIFFLUENT FROM
16N-24N E OF 102W AIDING SCATTERED TSTMS ACTIVITY OVER ERN MEXICO
FROM 17N-20N E OF 99W. S OF 16N THE UPPER LEVEL IS DIVERGENT
WITH A MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM 9N99W NE TO THE GULF 
OF TEHUANTEPEC. A MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 9N97W S TO
WELL S OF THE EQUATOR AT 97W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES TO REMAIN 
LARGELY CONVECTIVELY INACTIVE...ALTHOUGH THE TROUGH IS PRODUCING
ENOUGH UPPER DIFFLUENCE TO AID TSTM ACTIVITY ALONG THE ITCZ 
BETWEEN 86W-88.5W. OTHERWISE THE ENTIRE AREA IS UNDER A BROAD 
SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT CAPPING ANY SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING WITH MID-LEVEL RIDGING EXTENDING FROM COLOMBIA
NED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA TO E GUATEMALA.

ON THE MARINE FRONT...A SERIES OF LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAINS IS 
AFFECTING THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST...WITH PERIODS 
MAXING NEAR 17 SEC. DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY
THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY ESPECIALLY ON THE SW-FACING 
BEACHES BETWEEN PANAMA AND BAJA CALIFORNIA. A SECOND SWELL TRAIN 
IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE AT THE COAST LATE MON AND SHOULD PRODUCE 
SIMILAR CONDITIONS.

$$
AGUIRRE