000
AXPZ20 KNHC 301440
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC FRI MAR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 5N77W 6N89W 5N103W 4N115W 3N128W 
4N140W. NO SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN REMAINS IN PLACE 
ACROSS THIS REGION. THE RIDGE AXIS IS ALIGNED N-S ALONG 132W 
WITH PRONOUNCED TROUGHING COVERING MUCH OF THE AREA N OF 26N E 
OF 122W WHICH INCLUDES A GOOD PORTION OF BAJA AND NRN MAINLAND 
MEXICO. THIS TROUGHING IS ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL 
CUT OFF LOW CENTERED OVER WRN COLORADO. A WEAKENED SUBTROPICAL 
JET ON THE S SIDE OF THE UPPER CUT OFF IS GENERATING SCATTERED 
HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS E OF 120W FROM 21N-25N. ELSEWHERE UPPER 
LEVEL CONFLUENCE IS SUPPLYING A DRY SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. AT 
THE SFC...A 1028 MB HIGH NEAR 35N133W IS IN CONTROL GENERATING 
AN AREA OF 20-25 KT TRADE WINDS FROM 7N-22N W OF 118W. THIS HIGH 
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ITS WEAKENING PROCESS AS IT STAYS NEARLY 
STATIONARY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE TRADES TO RELAX AND POSSIBLY 
FALL BELOW 20 KT LATE THIS WEEKEND.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
THE SRN EXTENSION OF THE RIDGE DISCUSSED IN THE ABOVE SECTION IS 
MORE ELONGATED EXTENDING NW FROM THE EQ THRU 10N135W 20N133W. 
DEBRIS MOISTURE FROM A LARGE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT AREA S OF THE 
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS IS PUSHING EWD INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA 
CURRENTLY CONTAINED W OF 128W...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP 
MOISTURE AND LIMITED CONVERGENCE ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPRESSING 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY SIGNIFICANT DEEP CONVECTION. FARTHER 
E...A BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG 95W IS PRODUCING S/SWLY UPPER 
LEVEL FLOW AND PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA. A FEW 
EMBEDDED SHOWERS ARE ALSO POPPING UP OVER WRN PANAMA.

LOOKING AHEAD THROUGH THE WEEKEND...THE WEATHER PATTERN IS 
EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER TRANQUIL. HOWEVER...A SERIES OF STORM 
SYSTEMS IN THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE E OF NEW ZEALAND HAVE 
PRODUCED AT LEAST TWO LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAINS WHICH ARE HEADING 
NE TOWARDS THE COASTS OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FIRST 
SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST ON SATURDAY WITH THE 
SECOND LIKELY TO ARRIVE MON EVENING/NIGHT. IN BOTH 
EPISODES...WAVE PERIODS WILL BE LONG ENOUGH...NEAR 18 SEC...TO 
PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY ON SW-FACING 
BEACHES FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
CANGIALOSI