000
AXPZ20 KNHC 300906
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC FRI MAR 30 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N77W 6N88W 4N110W 6N120W 4N140W. NO 
SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.

...DISCUSSION...

SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC...
AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS IS PLANTED OVER THE NW PART OF THE 
DISCUSSION AREA ALONG 134W BUT ITS EWD PROGRESSION IS BEING 
IMPEDED BY A NEARLY STATIONARY CUT-OFF LOW OVER THE FOUR CORNERS 
REGION OF THE UNITED STATES. A RELAXATION OF THE GEOPOTENTIAL 
GRADIENT NEAR THE RIDGE AXIS HAS CAUSED THE SUBTROPICAL JET TO 
HAVE A LOCAL MINIMUM IN THE AREA...WITH THE RESULTANT UPPER 
LEVEL CONVERGENCE PRODUCING A PATCH OF MODERATE/STRONG 
SUBSIDENCE FROM 18N-28N W OF 127W. ADDITIONAL SUBSIDENCE IS 
OCCURRING ACROSS FAR NW MEXICO WHERE THE SUBTROPICAL JET AND A 
JET STREAK ON THE W SIDE OF THE CLOSED LOW ARE MERGING. HIGH 
PRES REMAINS IN CONTROL AT THE SURFACE...NOW ANCHORED BY A  
WEAKENING 1027 MB HIGH NEAR 35N132W. THIS IN TURN IS CAUSING THE 
TRADES TO DIMINISH...AND THEY SHOULD BARELY BE REACHING 20 KT BY 
SAT MORNING.

TROPICAL PACIFIC...
THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW IS MORE OR LESS ZONAL ACROSS THE TROPICAL 
PACIFIC WATERS W OF 110W...TRANSITIONING INTO A BROAD TROUGH 
CENTERED ALONG 100W. ON THE OTHER HAND...A WEAK MID-LEVEL RIDGE 
IS LOCATED ALONG 15N WHICH IS CAUSING MAINLY MID-LEVEL 
EASTERLIES FROM CENTRAL AMERICA WWD TO 140W. A FEW PATCHES OF 
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE ARE BEING ADVECTED EWD IN THE UPPER 
LEVELS...BUT A GENERAL LACK OF DEEP MOISTURE AND NO CONVERGENCE 
ALONG THE ITCZ IS SUPPRESSING THE DEVELOPMENT OF ANY DEEP 
CONVECTION. FARTHER E...THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH ALONG 100W IS 
PRODUCING S/SWLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA WITH 
PATCHY HIGH CLOUDS LYING ACROSS EXTREME SE MEXICO...GUATEMALA... 
EL SALVADOR...AND HONDURAS.

HEADING INTO NEXT WEEK...A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE 
SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE E OF NEW ZEALAND HAVE PRODUCED AT LEAST TWO 
LONG-PERIOD SWELL TRAINS WHICH ARE HEADING NE TOWARDS THE COASTS 
OF MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA. THE FIRST SWELL TRAIN IS EXPECTED 
TO REACH THE COAST BEGINNING SAT MORNING WITH THE SECOND LIKELY 
TO ARRIVE MON EVENING/NIGHT. IN BOTH EPISODES...WAVE PERIODS 
WILL BE LONG ENOUGH TO PRODUCE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS 
ESPECIALLY ON SW-FACING BEACHES FROM PANAMA TO BAJA CALIFORNIA.

$$
BERG