000
AXPZ20 KNHC 271521
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC TUE MAR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
1445 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 4N78W 6N92W 7N11W 5N125W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
124W AND 131W. ISOLATED MODERATE WITHIN 120 NM OF AXIS BETWEEN 
88W AND 98W...AND BETWEEN 107W AND 116W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...TO THE S OF PRONOUNCED TROUGHING OVER 
THE WRN U.S...COVERS THE BULK OF DISCUSSION AREA N OF 23N. THE 
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT IS DISSIPATING FROM SRN CALIFORNIA TO 
28N130W. THIS WEAK BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO COMPLETELY FIZZLE 
THRU TOMORROW AS ITS UPPER SUPPORT GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PUSHES 
E. A MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS BUILDING EWD BEHIND THE ZONAL 
FLOW/TROUGH WITH THE AXIS STRETCHING N-S ALONG 139W ANCHORED BY 
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH NEAR 19N139W. A LARGE SWATH OF DRY SINKING 
AIR IS EVIDENT ON WV IMAGES BETWEEN 12N-24N. A SUBTROPICAL JET 
ORIGINATES NEAR 11N124W AND RACES ENE ACROSS SRN MEXICO 
ADVECTING A PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS WITHIN 400 NM 
E/SE OF THE JET AXIS. THIS JET IS LIKELY ASSISTING IN FIRING UP 
CONVECTION ALONG THE ITCZ BETWEEN 124W AND 131W. THE FAR ERN 
PORTION OF THE REGION IS AN UPPER LEVEL CONFLUENT ZONE AIDING IN 
THE WIDESPREAD DRY AIR ALOFT SUPPRESSING DEEP CLOUDINESS IN THE 
REGION.

AT THE SFC...A 1037 MB HIGH LOCATED WELL N OF THE REGION NEAR 
40N138W CONTROLS THE PATTERN AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF 
20-25 KT TRADES GENERALLY W OF 120W. THIS HIGH IS FORECAST TO 
SHIFT E AND SLOWLY WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AS THIS 
HAPPENS...THE STRONGER TRADES WILL SHIFT E AND DECREASE IN 
COVERAGE. NWLY WINDS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO PICK UP IN THE GULF OF 
CALIFORNIA...IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WED AND THU...AS THE PRES 
GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW PRES IN THE WRN U.S. 

$$
CANGIALOSI/WILLIS