000
AXPZ20 KNHC 270933
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1005 UTC TUE MAR 27 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 
0845 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG 3N77W 7N84W 5N95W 6N110W 6N140W. 
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION WITHIN 30 NM OF THE AXIS BETWEEN 
85W-95W. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTMS WITHIN 75 NM OF THE AXIS 
BETWEEN 112W-133W.

...DISCUSSION...

STRONG NEARLY ZONAL MID/UPPER LEVEL FLOW STRETCHES ACROSS THE N 
PART OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...LYING ALONG THE BASE OF A VIGOROUS 
CLOSED MID-LEVEL LOW MOVING ONSHORE THE COASTS OF OREGON AND 
CALIFORNIA. A WEAKENING COLD FRONT IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS 
FEATURE AND IS PLUNGING SEWD OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST... 
CURRENTLY EXTENDING FROM NEAR LOS ANGELES TO 30N124W TO 27N140W. 
THE FRONT IS ALREADY BECOMING INFUSED INTO THE LARGE SUBTROPICAL 
HIGH COVERING THE E PACIFIC...SO THERE IS LITTLE CONVERGENCE OR 
MOISTURE FOR ANYTHING MORE THAN A NARROW FRONTAL CLOUD BAND. 
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP OUT OF THE N/NW...POSSIBLY UP TO 30 
KT...OFF THE BAJA PENINSULA AND WITHIN THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HRS AS THE FRONT MOVES S.

THE TRADES ARE RUNNING 20-25 KT W OF 120W DUE TO THE STRONG HIGH 
BUT ARE EXPECTED TO FINALLY RELAX A BIT GETTING INTO LATE 
THU/FRI. IN THE MID-UPPER LEVELS...A MID-LEVEL HIGH IS CENTERED 
NEAR 20N135W AND IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE FROM 
10N-25N W OF 130W. A SHARP UPPER TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS RUNS FROM THE 
SRN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SW TO 10N140W AND IS ALSO PRODUCING A 
LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE TO ITS N...WHILE ALSO BOUNDED BY A DEEP 
TROPICAL MOISTURE PLUME WHICH EXTENDS INLAND ACROSS S/CENTRAL 
MEXICO. EVEN THOUGH MOISTURE IS PRESENT...THE ITCZ IS FAIRLY 
LINEAR AT THE MOMENT SO THERE IS NO CONVERGENCE TO PRODUCE 
WIDESPREAD DEEP CONVECTION.

FARTHER E...AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDS FROM THE WATERS SW OF 
GUATEMALA STRETCHING INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO WITH MOST OF THE 
AREA UNDER A SUBSIDENT ENVIRONMENT. THE GAP WINDS HAVE EASED 
BACK AND LEFT LIGHT FLOW OFF THE MEXICAN/CENTRAL AMERICAN COAST 
WITH MOSTLY FAIR SKIES.

$$
BERG