000
AXPZ20 KNHC 261518
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC MON MAR 26 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS ALONG THE LINE...5N77W 6N105W 5N140W. SCATTERED 
MODERATE CONVECTION IS WITHIN 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 
7.7N83.3W 4.3N88.1W.

...DISCUSSION...

MIDDLE AND UPPER TROUGH DOMINATE THE SYNOPTIC FEATURES OVER THE 
NORTHWEST HALF OF THE AREA. TROUGH SOUTH OF THE MAIN WESTERLY 
FLOW WITH AN AXIS FROM CENTRAL MEXICO NEAR 26N100W 19N110W 
12N130W 10N140W. AN ASSOCIATED CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED 
ON THE MEXICO U.S. BORDER NEAR 29.6N104.4W.  THE STRONG PART OF 
THE TROUGH HAS MOVED OVER MEXICO AND WILL CONTINUE EAST WITH THE 
TRAILING TROUGH GRADUALLY WEAKENING FURTHER AND MOVING SLOWLY 
EAST. DRY AND CLOUD FREE AIR IS OBSERVED IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER 
LEVELS NORTH OF THE TROUGH AXIS AND SOUTH OF 24N.  A PLUME OF 
UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE EXTENDS 600 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS 
AND IS ADVECTING OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MEXICO.  BROKEN 
MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL MULTI LEVEL CLOUDS ARE WITHIN THIS AREA 
EXTENDING 360 NM SOUTHEAST OF THE TROUGH AXIS. OVERCAST TO 
LOCALLY BROKEN STRATOCUMULUS COVER AN EXTENSIVE AREA NORTH OF 
THE TROUGH AXIS WEST OF 114W.

ANOTHER TROUGH MORE EMBEDDED IN THE WESTERLIES IS PASSING ACROSS 
THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA WITH A TROUGH AXIS ALONG 32N133W 
TO BEYOND 31N140W. SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED 
NORTH OF 28N ASSOCIATED WITH THIS TROUGH. 
 
THE AREA EAST OF A LINE 20N100W TO THE ITCZ NEAR 110W IS 
DOMINATED BY ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS.  
AN AREA OF MODERATE CONVECTION IS 45 NM EITHER SIDE OF THE LINE 
7.7N83.3W 4.3N88.1W. EXCEPT FOR THIS CONVECTION THE ANTICYCLONIC 
AREA IS DRY AND CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS WITH 
SCATTERED CUMULUS IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 105W. BROAD TROUGH 
IS ANALYZED ELSEWHERE.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS TO 20 KT OVER AND JUST S OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC WILL DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON. NE WINDS OF 20 KT IN 
THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO REGION WILL DIMINISH TO LESS THAN 20 KT 
LATE TODAY.

$$
LL