000
AXPZ20 KNHC 252149
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
2205 UTC SUN MAR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1800 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 2045 UTC.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS ALONG...44N77W  7N80W  4N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE WITHIN 180 NM N OF AXIS W OF 110W.

...DISCUSSION...
LONGWAVE MID/ UPPER LEVEL TROUGH FROM 32N109W TO 18N121W TO 
13N140W.  VERY DRY AIR MASS DUE TO STRONG SUBSIDENCE WITHIN 300 
NM NW OF TROUGH AXIS.  JET CORE 110 KT HEADS NE WITHIN 120 NM OF 
AXIS ADVECTING LARGE AMOUNTS OF TROPICAL MOISTURE RESULTING FROM 
ITCZ CONVECTION WHICH HAS BEEN ENHANCED BY UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT 
FLOW ALONG 115W.  OVERCAST MULTI LAYER CLOUDS WITHIN THIS PLUME 
OF MOISTURE EXTEND 480 NM SE OF AXIS.

UPSTREAM FROM TROUGH...UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ENTERS W BORDER OF E 
PAC BASIN IMPORTING MORE MOISTURE N OF 23N W OF 120W BUT WITH 
LITTLE CONVECTION TO SHOW POSSIBLY DUE TO STABLE LOW LEVEL LAYER 
WITH OVERCAST TO BROKEN STRATIFIED CLOUDS.

DOWNSTREAM...W EXTENSION OF ATLC UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WITH 
ANTICYCLONIC CENTER AT 6N107W MAINTAIN SUBSIDING DRY AIR MASS 
ACROSS REMAINDER OF E PAC S OF 12N E OF 107W CURTAILING ITCZ 
CONVECTION. 

AT THE SURFACE...
BROAD HIGH PRES 1028 MB AT 34N138W HAS RIDGE EXTEND SE TO 
20N108W PRODUCING LARGE AREA OF BRISK TRADES WHICH INCREASE IN 
COVERAGE AS INCOMING COLD FRONT SQUEEZES RIDGE AGAINST COASTAL 
TOPOGRAPHY.  STRONG N WINDS ALONG CALIFORNIA COAST EXTEND S INTO 
BAJA CALIFORNIA WATERS BY END OF FORECAST PERIOD.  COLD FRONT 
ENTERS NW CORNER OF BASIN IN 24 HRS WITH BRISK N WINDS AND SEAS 
OF 8 FT NW OF FRONT...EVENTUALLY REACHING W COAST.

GAP WINDS...N WINDS OVER SMALL AREA OF GULF OF TEHUANTEPEC 
SHOULD DIMINISH IN 24 HOURS.  NE WIND ACROSS GULF OF PAPAGAYO 
FORECAST TO DIMINISH IN 24 HRS.

$$
WALLY BARNES