000
AXPZ20 KNHC 251520
TWDEP 

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION    
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN MAR 25 2007

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 
THE EQUATOR TO 32N...EAST OF 140W. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS 
BASED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND 
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY
THROUGH 1500 UTC.

...ITCZ...

ITCZ AXIS IS CENTERED ALONG THE LINE...4N77W 6N110W 5N140W. 
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN THE AREA FROM 
6.5N TO 8.5N FROM 126W TO 131W.
 
...DISCUSSION...

LONGWAVE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS OVER THE AREA NORTH OF 
A LINE 25N105W 15N120W 12N130W 14N140W. BROKEN HIGH CLOUDS ARE 
NORTH OF 29N WEST OF 122W. OVERCAST STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS ARE IN 
THE LOWER LEVELS WITHIN THE ENTIRE TROUGH AREA. WITHIN 600 NM N 
OF THE ABOVE LINE DRY AND CLOUD FREE CONDITIONS ARE OBSERVED IN 
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. A STRONG 
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS ENHANCING THE LONGWAVE TROUGH EAST OF 115W. 
A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER IS OBSERVED OVER CENTRAL BAJA 
CALIFORNIA AND THE SEA OF CORTEZ NEAR 27N112W. SOME CONVECTION 
IS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF 
NORTHWEST MEXICO. THE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EAST AND WEAKEN 
OVER MEXICO DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

EAST OF 130W AND SOUTHEAST OF THE ABOVE MENTIONED LINE THE 
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS ADVECTING A PLUME OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE 
EMANATING FROM ITCZ CONVECTION TO OVER CENTRAL MEXICO. OVERCAST 
MULTI LAYER CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED WITHIN THIS PLUME OF MOISTURE 
WITHIN 600 NM SE OF THE LINE. 

EAST OF A LINE FROM 20N99W TO 5N108W THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND 
CLOUD FREE IN THE MIDDLE AND UPPER LEVELS. CLEAR TO SCATTERED 
CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE OBSERVED IN THE LOWER LEVELS.

AT THE SURFACE...
MODERATE RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE ITCZ WEST OF 110W WITH A 1026 MB 
HIGH CENTER NEAR 30N134W. ELSEWHERE BROAD TROUGH IS ANALYZED.

A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA 
TONIGHT WITH NORTHERLY WINDS OF 20 KT AND SEAS OF 8 FT NORTHWEST 
OF THE FRONT.

GAP WINDS...N-NE WINDS TO 20 KT OVER A SMALL AREA OF THE GULF OF 
TEHUANTEPEC SHOULD DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS. NE WINDS OF 20-25 
KT ACROSS THE GULF OF PAPAGAYO ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 20 KT 
IN 24 HOURS AND TO LESS THAN 20 KT IN 30 HOURS.

$$
LL